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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sean O'Malley won · U-DEC R3

Elo1533

Elo1518

Sean O'MalleyvsSong YadongUFC Prediction Result

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Saturday, January 24, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sean O'Malley won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSean O'Malley: StrikervsSong Yadong: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Sean O'Malley wins(71.0%)

Actual result: Sean O'Malley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean O'Malley at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Sean O'Malley (52.9%).
Sean O'Malley has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sean O'Malley

Red Corner

Song Yadong

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+188

(35%)

1533

Elo

1518

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean O'Malley

oldest →

KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 23

vs Marlon Vera · Mar 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 24

SUBvs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 25

KOvs Aiemann Zahabi · Jun 26

latest

Song YadongW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ricky Simon · Apr 23

vs Chris Gutierrez · Dec 23

vs Petr Yan · Mar 24

vs Henry Cejudo · Feb 25

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean O'MalleyMetricSong Yadong

6.05

Strikes / min

4.42

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.94

60%

Strike defense

55%

0.24

TDs / 15 min

0.78

60%

Takedown defense

73%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.65Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap+0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean O'MalleySong Yadong

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean O'Malley(10 fights)Song Yadong(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.3|Blue -15.3

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean O'MalleyTargetSong Yadong

By target zone

43% acc · 48%

Head

27% acc · 42%

57% acc · 33%

Body

33% acc · 6%

82% acc · 19%

Leg

58% acc · 53%

By position

52% acc · 100%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean O'Malley rounds

even

Song Yadong rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Song Yadong edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:28Control

Round 3Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 92

Sig Strikes

36 / 94

50%

Sig Str %

39.3%

67 / 111

Total Strikes

69 / 130

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Song Yadong	10 / 23	23 / 37	1 / 1
1	Sean O'Malley	16 / 26	22 / 32	0 / 0
2	Song Yadong	14 / 31	34 / 53	2 / 4
2	Sean O'Malley	7 / 20	20 / 33	0 / 0
3	Song Yadong	12 / 40	12 / 40	0 / 2
3	Sean O'Malley	25 / 46	25 / 46	0 / 0

Sean O'Malley

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Song Yadong

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights17