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Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Merab Dvalishvili won · U-DEC R5
Elo1533
Sean O'Malley
Elo1542
Merab Dvalishvili

Sean O'MalleyvsMerab DvalishviliUFC Prediction Result

UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · Saturday, September 14, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Merab Dvalishvili won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupSean O'Malley: StrikervsMerab Dvalishvili: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Merab Dvalishvili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Merab Dvalishvili at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Merab Dvalishvili has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Sean O'Malley (52.9%).
  • Sean O'Malley has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sean O'Malley
Red Corner
VS
Merab Dvalishvili
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
1533
Elo
1542
31
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'6"
182.88 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean O'MalleyW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 23
W
vs Marlon Vera · Mar 24
L
SUBvs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 25
W
vs Song Yadong · Jan 26
W
KOvs Aiemann Zahabi · Jun 26
latest
Merab Dvalishvili
oldest →
W
vs Henry Cejudo · Feb 24
W
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25
W
SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25
L
vs Petr Yan · Dec 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean O'MalleyMetricMerab Dvalishvili
6.05
Strikes / min
4.42
3.40
Strikes absorbed / min
2.80
60%
Strike defense
54%
0.24
TDs / 15 min
5.97
60%
Takedown defense
76%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.65Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1637 vs 1630Strikes6.7 vs 4.3Takedowns0.3 vs 6.1Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.30Form1.1 vs 1.1
Sean O'MalleyMerab Dvalishvili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801503152515481570← oldermost recent →
Sean O'Malley(10 fights)Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -9.5|Blue +9.5
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean O'MalleyTargetMerab Dvalishvili

By target zone

22
46% acc · 47%
Head
55
42% acc · 67%
23
59% acc · 49%
Body
4
67% acc · 5%
2
100% acc · 4%
Leg
23
82% acc · 28%

By position

45
53% acc · 96%
Distance
29
34% acc · 35%
0
0% acc
Clinch
8
57% acc · 10%
2
67% acc · 4%
Ground
45
69% acc · 55%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Sean O'Malley rounds
0
even
5
Merab Dvalishvili rounds
Round 1Merab Dvalishvili edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:20Control
Round 2Merab Dvalishvili edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:12Control
Round 3Merab Dvalishvili edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:52Control
Round 4Merab Dvalishvili edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:37Control
Round 5Merab Dvalishvili edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
47 / 89
Sig Strikes
82 / 164
54%
Sig Str %
49.4%
49 / 91
Total Strikes
214 / 310
0 / 0
TDs
6 / 15
—
TD %
61.2%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
10:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Merab Dvalishvili16 / 3025 / 412 / 30
1Sean O'Malley14 / 2814 / 280 / 00
2Merab Dvalishvili18 / 3865 / 921 / 10
2Sean O'Malley5 / 106 / 110 / 00
3Merab Dvalishvili17 / 3825 / 460 / 50
3Sean O'Malley11 / 2111 / 210 / 00
4Merab Dvalishvili21 / 3274 / 891 / 10
4Sean O'Malley6 / 97 / 100 / 00
5Merab Dvalishvili10 / 2625 / 422 / 50
5Sean O'Malley11 / 2111 / 210 / 00

Sean O'Malley

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights14

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17