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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marlon Vera won · KO/TKO

Elo1533

Elo1475

Sean O'MalleyvsMarlon VeraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Saturday, August 15, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marlon Vera won

KO/TKO

Style matchupSean O'Malley: StrikervsMarlon Vera: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Sean O'Malley wins(75.2%)

Actual result: Marlon Vera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean O'Malley at -305 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Sean O'Malley has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Sean O'Malley

Red Corner

Marlon Vera

Blue Corner

-305

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1533

Elo

1475

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean O'MalleyW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marlon Vera · Mar 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 24

SUBvs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 25

vs Song Yadong · Jan 26

KOvs Aiemann Zahabi · Jun 26

latest

Marlon VeraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean O'MalleyMetricMarlon Vera

6.05

Strikes / min

4.18

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

5.34

60%

Strike defense

50%

0.24

TDs / 15 min

0.47

60%

Takedown defense

71%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.65Δ 3.81 — meaningful gap-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean O'MalleyMarlon Vera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean O'Malley(10 fights)Marlon Vera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.4|Blue -58.4

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean O'MalleyTargetMarlon Vera

By target zone

25% acc · 30%

Head

50% acc · 28%

67% acc · 40%

Body

40% acc · 22%

100% acc · 30%

Leg

90% acc · 50%

By position

48% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 61%

Clinch

Ground

88% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean O'Malley rounds

even

Marlon Vera rounds

Round 1Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 21

Sig Strikes

18 / 30

47%

Sig Str %

60%

10 / 21

Total Strikes

18 / 30

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marlon Vera	18 / 30	18 / 30	0 / 0	0
1	Sean O'Malley	10 / 21	10 / 21	0 / 0	0

Sean O'Malley

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26