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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Sean O'Malley won · U-DEC R5

Elo1533

Elo1475

Sean O'MalleyvsMarlon VeraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Saturday, March 9, 2024Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Sean O'Malley won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupSean O'Malley: StrikervsMarlon Vera: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Sean O'Malley wins(82.9%)

Actual result: Sean O'Malley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean O'Malley at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sean O'Malley has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Sean O'Malley

Red Corner

Marlon Vera

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1533

Elo

1475

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean O'MalleyW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 23

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 24

SUBvs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 25

vs Song Yadong · Jan 26

KOvs Aiemann Zahabi · Jun 26

latest

Marlon VeraL3 streak

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Mar 23

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean O'MalleyMetricMarlon Vera

6.05

Strikes / min

4.18

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

5.34

60%

Strike defense

50%

0.24

TDs / 15 min

0.47

60%

Takedown defense

71%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.65Δ 3.81 — meaningful gap-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean O'MalleyMarlon Vera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean O'Malley(10 fights)Marlon Vera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.4|Blue -58.4

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean O'MalleyTargetMarlon Vera

By target zone

150

56% acc · 65%

Head

25% acc · 46%

90% acc · 27%

Body

40% acc · 16%

95% acc · 8%

Leg

83% acc · 38%

By position

227

64% acc · 99%

Distance

36% acc · 96%

75% acc · 1%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean O'Malley rounds

even

Marlon Vera rounds

Round 1Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:03

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes56

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes61

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

230 / 356

Sig Strikes

89 / 241

65.2%

Sig Str %

37.2%

232 / 358

Total Strikes

89 / 241

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marlon Vera	9 / 21	9 / 21	0 / 0
1	Sean O'Malley	27 / 36	27 / 36	0 / 0
2	Marlon Vera	16 / 46	16 / 46	0 / 0
2	Sean O'Malley	51 / 83	51 / 83	0 / 0
3	Marlon Vera	17 / 54	17 / 54	0 / 0
3	Sean O'Malley	35 / 58	35 / 58	0 / 0
4	Sean O'Malley	56 / 84	57 / 85	0 / 0
4	Marlon Vera	26 / 73	26 / 73	0 / 0
5	Marlon Vera	21 / 47	21 / 47	0 / 0
5	Sean O'Malley	61 / 95	62 / 96	0 / 0

Sean O'Malley

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26