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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sean O'Malley won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1533

Elo1453

Sean O'MalleyvsKris MoutinhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Saturday, July 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sean O'Malley won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:33

Style matchupSean O'Malley: StrikervsKris Moutinho: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Sean O'Malley wins(80.3%)

Actual result: Sean O'Malley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean O'Malley at -1000 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kris Moutinho enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sean O'Malley is a KO finisher (58% of wins). Kris Moutinho has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Sean O'Malley has 30pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sean O'Malley has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sean O'Malley (54.1%).
Sean O'Malley has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sean O'Malley

Red Corner

Kris Moutinho

Blue Corner

-1000

(91%)

Vegas Odds

+580

(15%)

1533

Elo

1453

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean O'MalleyW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marlon Vera · Mar 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 24

SUBvs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 25

vs Song Yadong · Jan 26

KOvs Aiemann Zahabi · Jun 26

latest

Kris MoutinhoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Guido Cannetti · Mar 22

KOvs Malcolm Wellmaker · Jun 25

vs Cristian Quinonez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean O'MalleyMetricKris Moutinho

6.05

Strikes / min

3.35

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

9.36

60%

Strike defense

30%

0.24

TDs / 15 min

0.00

60%

Takedown defense

30%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.65Δ 8.66 — meaningful gap-6.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean O'MalleyKris Moutinho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean O'Malley(10 fights)Kris Moutinho(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +80.2|Blue -80.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean O'MalleyTargetKris Moutinho

By target zone

177

69% acc · 77%

Head

23% acc · 56%

82% acc · 20%

Body

32% acc · 10%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

86% acc · 34%

By position

228

73% acc · 99%

Distance

32% acc · 99%

67% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean O'Malley rounds

even

Kris Moutinho rounds

Round 1Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes77

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes70

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes83

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

230 / 318

Sig Strikes

70 / 218

71.7%

Sig Str %

31.3%

230 / 318

Total Strikes

70 / 218

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kris Moutinho	24 / 72	24 / 72	0 / 0
1	Sean O'Malley	77 / 106	77 / 106	0 / 0
2	Kris Moutinho	19 / 68	19 / 68	0 / 0
2	Sean O'Malley	70 / 98	70 / 98	0 / 0
3	Kris Moutinho	27 / 78	27 / 78	0 / 0
3	Sean O'Malley	83 / 114	83 / 114	0 / 0

Sean O'Malley

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Kris Moutinho

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4