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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sean O'Malley won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1533

Elo1393

Sean O'MalleyvsJose QuinonezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Saturday, March 7, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sean O'Malley won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:02

Style matchupSean O'Malley: StrikervsJose Quinonez: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Sean O'Malley wins(56.6%)

Actual result: Sean O'Malley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean O'Malley at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean O'Malley is a KO finisher (58% of wins). Jose Quinonez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Sean O'Malley has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Sean O'Malley (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Sean O'Malley

Red Corner

Jose Quinonez

Blue Corner

-330

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1533

Elo

1393

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean O'MalleyW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marlon Vera · Mar 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 24

SUBvs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 25

vs Song Yadong · Jan 26

KOvs Aiemann Zahabi · Jun 26

latest

Jose Quinonez

oldest →

vs Diego Rivas · Aug 17

vs Teruto Ishihara · Feb 18

SUBvs Nathaniel Wood · Mar 19

vs Carlos Huachin · Sep 19

KOvs Louis Smolka · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean O'MalleyMetricJose Quinonez

6.05

Strikes / min

3.60

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

60%

Strike defense

64%

0.24

TDs / 15 min

2.70

60%

Takedown defense

42%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.65Δ 2.05 — meaningful gap+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean O'MalleyJose Quinonez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean O'Malley(10 fights)Jose Quinonez(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +140.4|Blue -140.4

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +2.8|Blue -2.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +567.0|Blue -567.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean O'MalleyTargetJose Quinonez

By target zone

82% acc · 50%

Head

0% acc

86% acc · 33%

Body

0% acc

75% acc · 17%

Leg

0% acc

By position

76% acc · 72%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 28%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean O'Malley rounds

even

Jose Quinonez rounds

Round 1Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:02

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 22

Sig Strikes

0 / 11

81%

Sig Str %

18 / 22

Total Strikes

0 / 11

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jose Quinonez	0 / 11	0 / 11	0 / 0	0
1	Sean O'Malley	18 / 22	18 / 22	0 / 0	0

Sean O'Malley

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Jose Quinonez

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9