Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Christian Morecraft won · SUB R2

Elo1351

Sean McCorklevsChristian MorecraftUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · Saturday, March 26, 2011Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Christian Morecraft won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:10

Style matchupSean McCorkle: WrestlervsChristian Morecraft: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Christian Morecraft wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Christian Morecraft wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Christian Morecraft at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Christian Morecraft enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Christian Morecraft threatens submissions; Sean McCorkle has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Christian Morecraft has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sean McCorkle

Red Corner

Christian Morecraft

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1351

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'7"

Height

6'6"

205.74 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean McCorkle

oldest →

SUBvs Mark Hunt · Sep 10

KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 10

latest

Christian MorecraftL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stefan Struve · Aug 10

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Jun 11

KOvs Pat Barry · Jan 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean McCorkleMetricChristian Morecraft

0.85

Strikes / min

2.82

2.48

Strikes absorbed / min

2.46

52%

Strike defense

46%

2.12

TDs / 15 min

3.26

33%

Takedown defense

50%

4.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.63Δ 1.99 — meaningful gap+0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean McCorkleChristian Morecraft

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean McCorkle(3 fights)Christian Morecraft(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean McCorkleTargetChristian Morecraft

By target zone

50% acc · 75%

Head

40% acc · 73%

100% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

50% acc · 63%

Distance

24% acc · 18%

0% acc

Clinch

75% acc · 14%

100% acc · 38%

Ground

60% acc · 68%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean McCorkle rounds

even

Christian Morecraft rounds

Round 1Christian Morecraft edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:58

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:27Control

Round 2Christian Morecraft edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:20

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 14

Sig Strikes

22 / 46

62%

Sig Str %

47%

12 / 19

Total Strikes

64 / 96

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

6:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Christian Morecraft	14 / 23	35 / 46	0 / 1	1
1	Sean McCorkle	4 / 5	7 / 8	1 / 1	0
2	Christian Morecraft	8 / 23	29 / 50	1 / 1	1
2	Sean McCorkle	4 / 9	5 / 11	0 / 1	0

Sean McCorkle

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights3

Christian Morecraft

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights4