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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Morales won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1521

Elo1551

Sean BradyvsMichael MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · Saturday, November 15, 2025New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Michael Morales won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:27

Style matchupSean Brady: WrestlervsMichael Morales: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Michael Morales wins(76.5%)

Actual result: Michael Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Morales at +128 American odds

+$128 profit

$228 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Brady enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Michael Morales enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Michael Morales is a KO finisher (71% of wins). Sean Brady has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Michael Morales has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sean Brady

Red Corner

Michael Morales

Blue Corner

-152

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+128

(44%)

1521

Elo

1551

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean BradyW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Belal Muhammad · Oct 22

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 23

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 24

SUBvs Leon Edwards · Mar 25

DECvs Joaquin Buckley · May 26

latest

Michael MoralesW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Adam Fugitt · Jul 22

vs Max Griffin · Jul 23

vs Jake Matthews · Nov 23

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 24

KOvs Gilbert Burns · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean BradyMetricMichael Morales

4.08

Strikes / min

5.68

2.77

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

59%

Strike defense

53%

3.58

TDs / 15 min

1.04

86%

Takedown defense

89%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.31Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap+2.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean BradyMichael Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Brady(10 fights)Michael Morales(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.1|Blue +29.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean BradyTargetMichael Morales

By target zone

33% acc · 63%

Head

48% acc · 100%

Body

0% acc

43% acc · 38%

Leg

0% acc

By position

36% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 88%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

75% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Brady rounds

even

Michael Morales rounds

Round 1Michael Morales edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 22

Sig Strikes

24 / 52

36%

Sig Str %

46%

8 / 22

Total Strikes

24 / 52

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Morales	24 / 52	24 / 52	0 / 0	0
1	Sean Brady	8 / 22	8 / 22	0 / 1	0

Sean Brady

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Michael Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7