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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sean Brady won · SUB R3

Elo1521

Elo1492

Sean BradyvsKelvin GastelumUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Saturday, December 2, 2023Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Sean Brady won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:43

Style matchupSean Brady: WrestlervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Sean Brady wins(82.1%)

Actual result: Sean Brady wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Brady at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Brady threatens submissions; Kelvin Gastelum has lost 36% of fights by sub.
Sean Brady has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sean Brady

Red Corner

Kelvin Gastelum

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1521

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean Brady

oldest →

KOvs Belal Muhammad · Oct 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 24

SUBvs Leon Edwards · Mar 25

KOvs Michael Morales · Nov 25

DECvs Joaquin Buckley · May 26

latest

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean BradyMetricKelvin Gastelum

4.08

Strikes / min

3.65

2.77

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

59%

Strike defense

57%

3.58

TDs / 15 min

1.04

86%

Takedown defense

60%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.31Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean BradyKelvin Gastelum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Brady(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.9|Blue -29.9

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean BradyTargetKelvin Gastelum

By target zone

50% acc · 57%

Head

37% acc · 39%

50% acc · 7%

Body

88% acc · 39%

83% acc · 36%

Leg

80% acc · 22%

By position

47% acc · 50%

Distance

57% acc · 72%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

80% acc · 22%

75% acc · 43%

Ground

25% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Brady rounds

even

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

Round 1Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns3

Control3:22

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control4:31

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control1:13

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 24

Sig Strikes

18 / 32

51.7%

Sig Str %

51.3%

97 / 130

Total Strikes

21 / 35

5 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:06

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kelvin Gastelum	13 / 21	16 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	Sean Brady	5 / 10	38 / 53	3 / 3	0
2	Kelvin Gastelum	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 0	0
2	Sean Brady	8 / 11	51 / 66	1 / 1	0
3	Kelvin Gastelum	3 / 5	3 / 5	0 / 0	0
3	Sean Brady	1 / 3	8 / 11	1 / 1	3

Sean Brady

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24