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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sean Brady won · Decision R3

Elo1521

Elo1516

Sean BradyvsJoaquin BuckleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · Saturday, May 9, 2026Newark, USA

Official fight result

Sean Brady won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSean Brady: WrestlervsJoaquin Buckley: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Sean Brady wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Sean Brady wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joaquin Buckley is a KO finisher (73% of wins). Sean Brady has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Sean Brady has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Joaquin Buckley has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sean Brady

Red Corner

Joaquin Buckley

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1521

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean Brady

oldest →

KOvs Belal Muhammad · Oct 22

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 23

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 24

SUBvs Leon Edwards · Mar 25

KOvs Michael Morales · Nov 25

latest

Joaquin Buckley

oldest →

KOvs Vicente Luque · Mar 24

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24

KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24

vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean BradyMetricJoaquin Buckley

4.08

Strikes / min

3.62

2.77

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

59%

Strike defense

58%

3.58

TDs / 15 min

1.43

86%

Takedown defense

70%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.31evenly matched on net striking+0.52

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Brady(10 fights)Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.5|Blue -5.5

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Sean Brady

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Joaquin Buckley

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17