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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sean Brady won · SUB

Elo1521

Elo1522

Sean BradyvsJake MatthewsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Saturday, March 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sean Brady won

SUB

Style matchupSean Brady: WrestlervsJake Matthews: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Sean Brady wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Sean Brady wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Brady at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Brady threatens submissions; Jake Matthews has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Sean Brady has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sean Brady

Red Corner

Jake Matthews

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1521

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean Brady

oldest →

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 23

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 24

SUBvs Leon Edwards · Mar 25

KOvs Michael Morales · Nov 25

DECvs Joaquin Buckley · May 26

latest

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean BradyMetricJake Matthews

4.08

Strikes / min

3.34

2.77

Strikes absorbed / min

2.62

59%

Strike defense

60%

3.58

TDs / 15 min

1.44

86%

Takedown defense

64%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.31evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean BradyJake Matthews

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Brady(10 fights)Jake Matthews(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean BradyTargetJake Matthews

By target zone

44% acc · 62%

Head

22% acc · 81%

100% acc · 3%

Body

43% acc · 14%

87% acc · 35%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

43% acc · 57%

Distance

23% acc · 90%

Clinch

84% acc · 43%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Brady rounds

even

Jake Matthews rounds

Round 1Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control2:40

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control3:33

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:55

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 68

Sig Strikes

21 / 84

54.3%

Sig Str %

25.3%

133 / 187

Total Strikes

32 / 95

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:08

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jake Matthews	8 / 26	13 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Sean Brady	12 / 21	34 / 50	0 / 0	0
2	Jake Matthews	9 / 26	14 / 31	0 / 0	0
2	Sean Brady	8 / 24	45 / 70	1 / 1	0
3	Jake Matthews	4 / 32	5 / 33	0 / 0	0
3	Sean Brady	17 / 23	54 / 67	0 / 0	1

Sean Brady

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25