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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sean Brady won · U-DEC R3

Elo1521

Elo1513

Sean BradyvsIsmail NaurdievUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, February 29, 2020Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Sean Brady won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSean Brady: WrestlervsIsmail Naurdiev: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Sean Brady wins(56.7%)

Actual result: Sean Brady wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Brady at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Sean Brady

Red Corner

Ismail Naurdiev

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1521

Elo

1513

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean Brady

oldest →

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 23

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 24

SUBvs Leon Edwards · Mar 25

KOvs Michael Morales · Nov 25

DECvs Joaquin Buckley · May 26

latest

Ismail Naurdiev

oldest →

vs Chance Rencountre · Jul 19

vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Sep 19

vs Bruno Silva · Oct 24

vs JunYong Park · Jun 25

KOvs Ryan Loder · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean BradyMetricIsmail Naurdiev

4.08

Strikes / min

3.66

2.77

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

59%

Strike defense

64%

3.58

TDs / 15 min

1.48

86%

Takedown defense

73%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.31evenly matched on net striking+1.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean BradyIsmail Naurdiev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Brady(10 fights)Ismail Naurdiev(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.7|Blue -8.7

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -20.0|Blue +20.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean BradyTargetIsmail Naurdiev

By target zone

42% acc · 64%

Head

25% acc · 43%

100% acc · 6%

Body

100% acc · 27%

82% acc · 30%

Leg

85% acc · 30%

By position

44% acc · 68%

Distance

42% acc · 89%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 11%

82% acc · 30%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Brady rounds

even

Ismail Naurdiev rounds

Round 1Ismail Naurdiev edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control3:46

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control4:10

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 91

Sig Strikes

37 / 87

53.7%

Sig Str %

42%

125 / 191

Total Strikes

38 / 88

4 / 9

TDs

0 / 1

38.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:56

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ismail Naurdiev	28 / 66	28 / 66	0 / 0	0
1	Sean Brady	19 / 45	19 / 45	0 / 2	0
2	Ismail Naurdiev	6 / 14	7 / 15	0 / 1	0
2	Sean Brady	18 / 26	34 / 47	2 / 4	0
3	Ismail Naurdiev	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0	0
3	Sean Brady	10 / 20	72 / 99	2 / 3	1

Sean Brady

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Ismail Naurdiev

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7