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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sean Brady won · SUB R2

Elo1521

Elo1400

Sean BradyvsChristian AguileraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · Saturday, August 29, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sean Brady won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:47

Model Prediction: Sean Brady wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Sean Brady wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Brady at -455 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Christian Aguilera is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Sean Brady has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Sean Brady threatens submissions; Christian Aguilera has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Sean Brady has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sean Brady has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Christian Aguilera (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Sean Brady

Red Corner

Christian Aguilera

Blue Corner

-455

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1521

Elo

1400

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean Brady

oldest →

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 23

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 24

SUBvs Leon Edwards · Mar 25

KOvs Michael Morales · Nov 25

DECvs Joaquin Buckley · May 26

latest

Christian Aguilera

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Ivy · Jun 20

SUBvs Carlston Harris · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean BradyMetricChristian Aguilera

4.08

Strikes / min

2.54

2.77

Strikes absorbed / min

4.04

59%

Strike defense

48%

3.58

TDs / 15 min

0.00

86%

Takedown defense

60%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.31Δ 2.81 — meaningful gap-1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean BradyChristian Aguilera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Brady(10 fights)Christian Aguilera(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +121.3|Blue -121.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean BradyTargetChristian Aguilera

By target zone

39% acc · 47%

Head

22% acc · 38%

50% acc · 3%

Body

67% acc · 13%

100% acc · 50%

Leg

89% acc · 50%

By position

52% acc · 82%

Distance

41% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Brady rounds

even

Christian Aguilera rounds

Round 1Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control1:05

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:03

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 60

Sig Strikes

16 / 39

68.5%

Sig Str %

47%

65 / 99

Total Strikes

17 / 40

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:08

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Christian Aguilera	12 / 32	13 / 33	0 / 0	0
1	Sean Brady	28 / 53	52 / 80	1 / 1	0
2	Christian Aguilera	4 / 7	4 / 7	0 / 0	0
2	Sean Brady	6 / 7	13 / 19	1 / 1	2

Sean Brady

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Christian Aguilera

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3