Flyweight

3 Rounds

Zach Makovsky won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1359

Scott JorgensenvsZach MakovskyUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · Saturday, December 14, 2013Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Zach Makovsky won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupScott Jorgensen: WrestlervsZach Makovsky: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Scott Jorgensen wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Zach Makovsky wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Scott Jorgensen at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Scott Jorgensen enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Zach Makovsky enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Zach Makovsky (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Scott Jorgensen

Red Corner

Zach Makovsky

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1356

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott JorgensenL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Mar 14

vs Danny Martinez · Jun 14

SUBvs Wilson Reis · Oct 14

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Jul 15

KOvs Alejandro Perez · Nov 15

latest

Zach MakovskyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jussier Formiga · Aug 14

vs Tim Elliott · Feb 15

vs John Dodson · May 15

vs Joseph Benavidez · Feb 16

vs Dustin Ortiz · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott JorgensenMetricZach Makovsky

3.37

Strikes / min

1.94

3.41

Strikes absorbed / min

2.24

65%

Strike defense

62%

2.61

TDs / 15 min

3.71

59%

Takedown defense

56%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Scott JorgensenZach Makovsky

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Scott Jorgensen(10 fights)Zach Makovsky(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.9|Blue +2.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott JorgensenTargetZach Makovsky

By target zone

29% acc · 61%

Head

27% acc · 65%

83% acc · 16%

Body

30% acc · 12%

78% acc · 23%

Leg

86% acc · 23%

By position

28% acc · 58%

Distance

32% acc · 96%

79% acc · 35%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 6%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Scott Jorgensen rounds

even

Zach Makovsky rounds

Round 1Scott Jorgensen edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:12

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:46

3Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 3Zach Makovsky edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:14

10Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:41Control

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 81

Sig Strikes

26 / 81

38.3%

Sig Str %

30.3%

45 / 95

Total Strikes

34 / 91

1 / 5

TDs

6 / 17

16.5%

TD %

30.7%

Sub Att

Rev

4:12

Ctrl Time

2:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Zach Makovsky	13 / 34	16 / 38	0 / 4	0
1	Scott Jorgensen	10 / 30	11 / 31	1 / 3	0
2	Zach Makovsky	3 / 22	5 / 24	3 / 7	0
2	Scott Jorgensen	11 / 28	16 / 33	0 / 2	1
3	Zach Makovsky	10 / 25	13 / 29	3 / 6	1
3	Scott Jorgensen	10 / 23	18 / 31	0 / 0	0

Scott Jorgensen

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights12

Zach Makovsky

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights7