← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Wilson Reis won · SUB R1

Elo1356

Elo1491

Scott JorgensenvsWilson ReisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · Saturday, October 25, 2014Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Wilson Reis won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:28

Style matchupScott Jorgensen: WrestlervsWilson Reis: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Wilson Reis wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Wilson Reis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Wilson Reis at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Scott Jorgensen has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Wilson Reis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Scott Jorgensen

Red Corner

Wilson Reis

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-215

(68%)

1356

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott JorgensenL2 streak

oldest →

vs Zach Makovsky · Dec 13

SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Mar 14

vs Danny Martinez · Jun 14

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Jul 15

KOvs Alejandro Perez · Nov 15

latest

Wilson Reis

oldest →

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Apr 17

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Sep 17

vs John Moraga · Apr 18

vs Ben Nguyen · Dec 18

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott JorgensenMetricWilson Reis

3.37

Strikes / min

1.83

3.41

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

65%

Strike defense

55%

2.61

TDs / 15 min

5.15

59%

Takedown defense

47%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04Δ 1.17 — meaningful gap-1.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Scott JorgensenWilson Reis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Scott Jorgensen(10 fights)Wilson Reis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.7|Blue +135.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott JorgensenTargetWilson Reis

By target zone

15% acc · 33%

Head

34% acc · 85%

50% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 8%

75% acc · 50%

Leg

50% acc · 8%

By position

29% acc · 67%

Distance

23% acc · 38%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 33%

Ground

62% acc · 62%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Scott Jorgensen rounds

even

Wilson Reis rounds

Round 1Wilson Reis edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:19

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:34Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 19

Sig Strikes

13 / 35

31%

Sig Str %

37%

7 / 20

Total Strikes

13 / 35

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

0:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Wilson Reis	13 / 35	13 / 35	1 / 2	1
1	Scott Jorgensen	6 / 19	7 / 20	0 / 0	0

Scott Jorgensen

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights12

Wilson Reis

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13