Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Manvel Gamburyan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1358

Scott JorgensenvsManvel GamburyanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · Wednesday, July 15, 2015San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Manvel Gamburyan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupScott Jorgensen: WrestlervsManvel Gamburyan: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Manvel Gamburyan wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Manvel Gamburyan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Manvel Gamburyan at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Scott Jorgensen has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Scott Jorgensen

Red Corner

Manvel Gamburyan

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1356

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott JorgensenL2 streak

oldest →

vs Zach Makovsky · Dec 13

SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Mar 14

vs Danny Martinez · Jun 14

SUBvs Wilson Reis · Oct 14

KOvs Alejandro Perez · Nov 15

latest

Manvel GamburyanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cole Miller · Aug 13

vs Nik Lentz · May 14

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Sep 14

KOvs John Dodson · Apr 16

KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott JorgensenMetricManvel Gamburyan

3.37

Strikes / min

2.13

3.41

Strikes absorbed / min

2.83

65%

Strike defense

55%

2.61

TDs / 15 min

3.26

59%

Takedown defense

69%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Scott JorgensenManvel Gamburyan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Scott Jorgensen(10 fights)Manvel Gamburyan(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.7|Blue +2.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott JorgensenTargetManvel Gamburyan

By target zone

39% acc · 67%

Head

36% acc · 62%

100% acc · 19%

Body

73% acc · 19%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

67% acc · 19%

By position

44% acc · 72%

Distance

42% acc · 74%

67% acc · 22%

Clinch

67% acc · 14%

67% acc · 6%

Ground

42% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Scott Jorgensen rounds

even

Manvel Gamburyan rounds

Round 1Manvel Gamburyan edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:44

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

2:24Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:47

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:47Control

Round 3Manvel Gamburyan edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 74

Sig Strikes

42 / 95

52.7%

Sig Str %

43.3%

56 / 94

Total Strikes

65 / 128

1 / 2

TDs

5 / 13

50%

TD %

30.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:31

Ctrl Time

4:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Manvel Gamburyan	10 / 23	26 / 45	4 / 6	2
1	Scott Jorgensen	8 / 14	10 / 16	0 / 0	0
2	Manvel Gamburyan	10 / 23	12 / 25	1 / 4	0
2	Scott Jorgensen	11 / 18	26 / 33	1 / 2	0
3	Manvel Gamburyan	22 / 49	27 / 58	0 / 3	0
3	Scott Jorgensen	17 / 42	20 / 45	0 / 0	0

Scott Jorgensen

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights12

Manvel Gamburyan

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9