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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Scott Jorgensen won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1356
Elo1490

Scott JorgensenvsKen StoneUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · Saturday, June 4, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Scott Jorgensen won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:01

Style matchupScott Jorgensen: WrestlervsKen Stone: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ken Stone wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Scott Jorgensen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ken Stone at +365 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Scott Jorgensen enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Ken Stone threatens submissions; Scott Jorgensen has lost 38% of fights by sub.
  • Scott Jorgensen has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Ken Stone has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Scott Jorgensen
Red Corner
VS
Ken Stone
Blue Corner
-460
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+365
(22%)
1356
Elo
1490
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'5"
Height
5'8"
167.64 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott JorgensenL3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Mar 14
W
vs Danny Martinez · Jun 14
L
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Oct 14
L
vs Manvel Gamburyan · Jul 15
L
KOvs Alejandro Perez · Nov 15
latest
Ken Stone
oldest →
W
SUBvs Donny Walker · Sep 11
W
vs Dustin Pague · Jun 12
L
KOvs Erik Perez · Aug 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott JorgensenMetricKen Stone
3.37
Strikes / min
3.85
3.41
Strikes absorbed / min
2.90
65%
Strike defense
48%
2.61
TDs / 15 min
1.24
59%
Takedown defense
60%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.04evenly matched on net striking+0.95
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Scott Jorgensen(10 fights)Ken Stone(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -134.4|Blue +134.4
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott JorgensenTargetKen Stone

By target zone

12
48% acc · 80%
Head
10
31% acc · 56%
2
100% acc · 13%
Body
5
100% acc · 28%
1
100% acc · 7%
Leg
3
60% acc · 17%

By position

8
40% acc · 53%
Distance
16
41% acc · 89%
2
100% acc · 13%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 11%
5
83% acc · 33%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Scott Jorgensen rounds
1
even
0
Ken Stone rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control1:09
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
15 / 28
Sig Strikes
18 / 42
53%
Sig Str %
42%
17 / 30
Total Strikes
25 / 49
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:09
Ctrl Time
0:21

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ken Stone18 / 4225 / 490 / 00
1Scott Jorgensen15 / 2817 / 301 / 10

Scott Jorgensen

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights12

Ken Stone

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4