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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Scott Jorgensen won · SUB R1
Elo1356
Elo1352

Scott JorgensenvsJohn AlbertUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz · Saturday, December 8, 2012Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Scott Jorgensen won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:59

Model Prediction: Scott Jorgensen wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Scott Jorgensen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Scott Jorgensen at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Scott Jorgensen enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • John Albert enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Scott Jorgensen has 30pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Scott Jorgensen
Red Corner
VS
John Albert
Blue Corner
-280
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+240
(29%)
1356
Elo
1352
43
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'8"
167.64 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott JorgensenL3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Mar 14
W
vs Danny Martinez · Jun 14
L
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Oct 14
L
vs Manvel Gamburyan · Jul 15
L
KOvs Alejandro Perez · Nov 15
latest
John AlbertL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Dustin Pague · Dec 11
L
SUBvs Ivan Menjivar · Feb 12
L
SUBvs Erik Perez · Jun 12
L
SUBvs Yaotzin Meza · Jul 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott JorgensenMetricJohn Albert
3.37
Strikes / min
3.05
3.41
Strikes absorbed / min
2.82
65%
Strike defense
35%
2.61
TDs / 15 min
0.00
59%
Takedown defense
50%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
6.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.04evenly matched on net striking+0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1497 vs 1485Strikes44.5 vs 19.3Takedowns1.5 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.67Form-0.3 vs -0.5
Scott JorgensenJohn Albert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Scott Jorgensen(10 fights)John Albert(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +3.5|Blue -3.5
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott JorgensenTargetJohn Albert

By target zone

8
57% acc · 67%
Head
5
50% acc · 100%
3
100% acc · 25%
Body
0
1
100% acc · 8%
Leg
0

By position

1
25% acc · 8%
Distance
3
38% acc · 60%
0
Clinch
0
11
79% acc · 92%
Ground
2
100% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Scott Jorgensen rounds
0
even
0
John Albert rounds
Round 1Scott Jorgensen edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control4:27
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
12 / 18
Sig Strikes
5 / 10
66%
Sig Str %
50%
16 / 22
Total Strikes
10 / 15
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
1
4:27
Ctrl Time
0:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Albert5 / 1010 / 150 / 01
1Scott Jorgensen12 / 1816 / 220 / 11

Scott Jorgensen

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights12

John Albert

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5