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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Scott Jorgensen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1351

Scott JorgensenvsJeff CurranUFC Prediction Result

UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · Saturday, October 29, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Scott Jorgensen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Scott Jorgensen wins(71.2%)

Actual result: Scott Jorgensen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Scott Jorgensen at -410 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Scott Jorgensen enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Scott Jorgensen has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Scott Jorgensen

Red Corner

Jeff Curran

Blue Corner

-410

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+365

(22%)

1356

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott JorgensenL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Mar 14

vs Danny Martinez · Jun 14

SUBvs Wilson Reis · Oct 14

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Jul 15

KOvs Alejandro Perez · Nov 15

latest

Jeff Curran

oldest →

vs Johnny Eduardo · May 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott JorgensenMetricJeff Curran

3.37

Strikes / min

1.54

3.41

Strikes absorbed / min

2.48

65%

Strike defense

60%

2.61

TDs / 15 min

0.35

59%

Takedown defense

35%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Scott JorgensenJeff Curran

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Scott Jorgensen(10 fights)Jeff Curran(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.3|Blue -4.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott JorgensenTargetJeff Curran

By target zone

32% acc · 64%

Head

23% acc · 54%

75% acc · 14%

Body

62% acc · 32%

90% acc · 21%

Leg

75% acc · 15%

By position

33% acc · 57%

Distance

28% acc · 76%

55% acc · 26%

Clinch

67% acc · 15%

64% acc · 17%

Ground

57% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Scott Jorgensen rounds

even

Jeff Curran rounds

Round 1Scott Jorgensen edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns3

Control3:37

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Scott Jorgensen edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control2:53

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 3Scott Jorgensen edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:16

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 103

Sig Strikes

41 / 126

40%

Sig Str %

32.3%

84 / 147

Total Strikes

67 / 156

5 / 5

TDs

0 / 3

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:46

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jeff Curran	11 / 34	27 / 53	0 / 0	0
1	Scott Jorgensen	10 / 25	40 / 56	3 / 3	0
2	Jeff Curran	8 / 23	17 / 33	0 / 1	1
2	Scott Jorgensen	10 / 26	20 / 37	2 / 2	0
3	Jeff Curran	22 / 69	23 / 70	0 / 2	0
3	Scott Jorgensen	22 / 52	24 / 54	0 / 0	0

Scott Jorgensen

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights12

Jeff Curran

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2