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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Scott Jorgensen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1490

Scott JorgensenvsDanny MartinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · Saturday, June 7, 2014Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

Scott Jorgensen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupScott Jorgensen: WrestlervsDanny Martinez: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Danny Martinez wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Scott Jorgensen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Martinez at +225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Scott Jorgensen enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Scott Jorgensen has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Scott Jorgensen

Red Corner

Danny Martinez

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1356

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott JorgensenL5 streak

oldest →

vs Zach Makovsky · Dec 13

SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Mar 14

SUBvs Wilson Reis · Oct 14

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Jul 15

KOvs Alejandro Perez · Nov 15

latest

Danny Martinez

oldest →

vs Chris Cariaso · Feb 14

vs Sirwan Kakai · Jun 15

vs Richie Vaculik · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott JorgensenMetricDanny Martinez

3.37

Strikes / min

2.73

3.41

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

65%

Strike defense

63%

2.61

TDs / 15 min

3.00

59%

Takedown defense

36%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04evenly matched on net striking-1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Scott JorgensenDanny Martinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Scott Jorgensen(10 fights)Danny Martinez(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -134.7|Blue +134.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott JorgensenTargetDanny Martinez

By target zone

35% acc · 73%

Head

29% acc · 77%

71% acc · 25%

Body

53% acc · 17%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

25% acc · 40%

Distance

27% acc · 64%

75% acc · 45%

Clinch

58% acc · 32%

75% acc · 15%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Scott Jorgensen rounds

even

Danny Martinez rounds

Round 1Scott Jorgensen edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns4

Control3:21

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Danny Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control1:18

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Scott Jorgensen edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns4

Control2:40

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 97

Sig Strikes

47 / 143

42%

Sig Str %

30.3%

82 / 152

Total Strikes

48 / 144

10 / 15

TDs

0 / 2

65.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:19

Ctrl Time

1:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Danny Martinez	14 / 38	15 / 39	0 / 0
1	Scott Jorgensen	9 / 19	19 / 37	4 / 5
2	Danny Martinez	27 / 74	27 / 74	0 / 1
2	Scott Jorgensen	19 / 49	34 / 66	2 / 4
3	Danny Martinez	6 / 31	6 / 31	0 / 1
3	Scott Jorgensen	12 / 29	29 / 49	4 / 6

Scott Jorgensen

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights12

Danny Martinez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4