← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nik Lentz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1443

Elo1395

Scott HoltzmanvsNik LentzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Sunday, February 17, 2019Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Nik Lentz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupScott Holtzman: Pressure fightervsNik Lentz: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Scott Holtzman wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Nik Lentz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Scott Holtzman at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Scott Holtzman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Scott Holtzman has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Scott Holtzman

Red Corner

Nik Lentz

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1443

Elo

1395

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott HoltzmanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Aug 19

vs Jim Miller · Feb 20

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Aug 20

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 21

vs Clay Guida · Dec 22

latest

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

vs David Teymur · Jun 18

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott HoltzmanMetricNik Lentz

4.32

Strikes / min

3.44

3.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

55%

Strike defense

50%

1.88

TDs / 15 min

3.30

67%

Takedown defense

43%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Scott HoltzmanNik Lentz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Scott Holtzman(10 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.3|Blue -48.3

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott HoltzmanTargetNik Lentz

By target zone

39% acc · 72%

Head

44% acc · 55%

62% acc · 24%

Body

89% acc · 23%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

37% acc · 74%

Distance

52% acc · 77%

88% acc · 13%

Clinch

94% acc · 23%

100% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Scott Holtzman rounds

even

Nik Lentz rounds

Round 1Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:03

32Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:44Control

Round 2Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:15

23Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 3Scott Holtzman edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 122

Sig Strikes

71 / 122

39.7%

Sig Str %

57.3%

86 / 157

Total Strikes

79 / 130

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 19

—

TD %

27%

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

6:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nik Lentz	32 / 43	38 / 49	2 / 8	0
1	Scott Holtzman	5 / 20	20 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Nik Lentz	23 / 45	23 / 45	2 / 5	1
2	Scott Holtzman	17 / 48	23 / 54	0 / 0	0
3	Nik Lentz	16 / 34	18 / 36	1 / 6	0
3	Scott Holtzman	32 / 54	43 / 65	0 / 0	0

Scott Holtzman

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22