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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mateusz Gamrot won · KO/TKO

Elo1443

Elo1525

Scott HoltzmanvsMateusz GamrotUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · Saturday, April 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mateusz Gamrot won

KO/TKO

Style matchupScott Holtzman: Pressure fightervsMateusz Gamrot: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot wins(58.5%)

Actual result: Mateusz Gamrot wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mateusz Gamrot at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mateusz Gamrot has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mateusz Gamrot (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Scott Holtzman

Red Corner

Mateusz Gamrot

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1443

Elo

1525

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott HoltzmanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nik Lentz · Feb 19

KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Aug 19

vs Jim Miller · Feb 20

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Aug 20

vs Clay Guida · Dec 22

latest

Mateusz Gamrot

oldest →

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Mar 24

vs Dan Hooker · Aug 24

vs Ludovit Klein · May 25

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 25

SUBvs Esteban Ribovics · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott HoltzmanMetricMateusz Gamrot

4.32

Strikes / min

3.21

3.66

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

55%

Strike defense

60%

1.88

TDs / 15 min

5.22

67%

Takedown defense

83%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66evenly matched on net striking+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Scott HoltzmanMateusz Gamrot

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Scott Holtzman(10 fights)Mateusz Gamrot(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -81.4|Blue +81.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +2.6|Blue -2.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott HoltzmanTargetMateusz Gamrot

By target zone

15% acc · 50%

Head

45% acc · 44%

33% acc · 20%

Body

80% acc · 21%

38% acc · 30%

Leg

93% acc · 36%

By position

21% acc · 100%

Distance

58% acc · 77%

Clinch

100% acc · 15%

Ground

60% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Scott Holtzman rounds

even

Mateusz Gamrot rounds

Round 1Mateusz Gamrot edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 2Mateusz Gamrot edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 48

Sig Strikes

39 / 63

18.5%

Sig Str %

60.5%

10 / 48

Total Strikes

41 / 65

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 5

TD %

41.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mateusz Gamrot	26 / 40	28 / 42	1 / 3
1	Scott Holtzman	8 / 33	8 / 33	0 / 1
2	Mateusz Gamrot	13 / 23	13 / 23	1 / 2
2	Scott Holtzman	2 / 15	2 / 15	0 / 0

Scott Holtzman

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Mateusz Gamrot

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12