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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Drew Dober won · U-DEC R3

Elo1443

Elo1514

Scott HoltzmanvsDrew DoberUFC Prediction Result

UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · Saturday, January 2, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Drew Dober won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupScott Holtzman: Pressure fightervsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Scott Holtzman wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Scott Holtzman at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Scott Holtzman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Scott Holtzman

Red Corner

Drew Dober

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1443

Elo

1514

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott HoltzmanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Aug 19

vs Jim Miller · Feb 20

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Aug 20

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 21

vs Clay Guida · Dec 22

latest

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott HoltzmanMetricDrew Dober

4.32

Strikes / min

4.48

3.66

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

55%

Strike defense

53%

1.88

TDs / 15 min

0.61

67%

Takedown defense

58%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Scott HoltzmanDrew Dober

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Scott Holtzman(10 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -70.6|Blue +70.6

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red -2.4|Blue +2.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott HoltzmanTargetDrew Dober

By target zone

53% acc · 87%

Head

37% acc · 81%

71% acc · 13%

Body

67% acc · 11%

Leg

75% acc · 8%

By position

43% acc · 45%

Distance

36% acc · 61%

71% acc · 26%

Clinch

48% acc · 28%

73% acc · 29%

Ground

67% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Scott Holtzman rounds

even

Drew Dober rounds

Round 1Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:02

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 2Scott Holtzman edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control2:54

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 3Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:03

11Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 69

Sig Strikes

36 / 88

55%

Sig Str %

40.3%

79 / 115

Total Strikes

63 / 119

2 / 5

TDs

5 / 14

22%

TD %

34.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:59

Ctrl Time

5:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Drew Dober	13 / 32	27 / 46	2 / 3
1	Scott Holtzman	12 / 25	22 / 35	0 / 1
2	Drew Dober	12 / 27	15 / 32	0 / 3
2	Scott Holtzman	11 / 20	31 / 45	2 / 3
3	Drew Dober	11 / 29	21 / 41	3 / 8
3	Scott Holtzman	15 / 24	26 / 35	0 / 1

Scott Holtzman

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26