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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Scott Holtzman won · U-DEC R3
Elo1443
Elo1369
Darrell Horcher

Scott HoltzmanvsDarrell HorcherUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 9, 2017Fresno, California, USA

Official fight result

Scott Holtzman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Darrell Horcher wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Scott Holtzman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darrell Horcher at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Scott Holtzman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Scott Holtzman has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Scott Holtzman has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Darrell Horcher (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Scott Holtzman
Red Corner
VS
Darrell Horcher
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
1443
Elo
1369
42
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'10"
175.26 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott HoltzmanL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Aug 19
W
vs Jim Miller · Feb 20
L
KOvs Beneil Dariush · Aug 20
L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 21
L
vs Clay Guida · Dec 22
latest
Darrell Horcher
oldest →
L
KOvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 16
W
vs Devin Powell · Jun 17
L
SUBvs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott HoltzmanMetricDarrell Horcher
4.32
Strikes / min
2.05
3.66
Strikes absorbed / min
4.21
55%
Strike defense
39%
1.88
TDs / 15 min
0.35
67%
Takedown defense
47%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.66Δ 2.82 — meaningful gap-2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1507Strikes66.2 vs 21.5Takedowns2.2 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.40 vs 1.00Form0.2 vs 0.5
Scott HoltzmanDarrell Horcher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Scott Holtzman(10 fights)Darrell Horcher(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +74.1|Blue -74.1
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +2.8|Blue -2.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +64.0|Blue -64.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott HoltzmanTargetDarrell Horcher

By target zone

28
47% acc · 57%
Head
28
52% acc · 78%
20
95% acc · 41%
Body
5
83% acc · 14%
1
100% acc · 2%
Leg
3
100% acc · 8%

By position

12
32% acc · 24%
Distance
13
41% acc · 36%
13
87% acc · 27%
Clinch
15
71% acc · 42%
24
80% acc · 49%
Ground
8
80% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Scott Holtzman rounds
0
even
0
Darrell Horcher rounds
Round 1Scott Holtzman edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns2
Control2:32
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:32Control
Round 2Scott Holtzman edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns3
Control3:38
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 3Scott Holtzman edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns2
Control3:39
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
49 / 82
Sig Strikes
36 / 63
61.3%
Sig Str %
56.7%
173 / 212
Total Strikes
60 / 87
7 / 11
TDs
1 / 1
66.7%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
9:49
Ctrl Time
1:41

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Darrell Horcher12 / 1920 / 271 / 10
1Scott Holtzman20 / 2944 / 542 / 40
2Darrell Horcher14 / 2324 / 330 / 00
2Scott Holtzman19 / 3847 / 693 / 30
3Darrell Horcher10 / 2116 / 270 / 00
3Scott Holtzman10 / 1582 / 892 / 40

Scott Holtzman

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13

Darrell Horcher

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4