Lightweight

3 Rounds

Scott Holtzman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1443

Elo1357

Scott HoltzmanvsCody PfisterUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · Wednesday, July 13, 2016Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA

Official fight result

Scott Holtzman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupScott Holtzman: Pressure fightervsCody Pfister: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Scott Holtzman wins(71.0%)

Actual result: Scott Holtzman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Scott Holtzman at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Scott Holtzman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Scott Holtzman has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Cody Pfister has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Scott Holtzman

Red Corner

Cody Pfister

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1443

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott HoltzmanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Aug 19

vs Jim Miller · Feb 20

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Aug 20

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 21

vs Clay Guida · Dec 22

latest

Cody Pfister

oldest →

SUBvs James Moontasri · Feb 15

vs Yosdenis Cedeno · Jul 15

SUBvs Sage Northcutt · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott HoltzmanMetricCody Pfister

4.32

Strikes / min

1.41

3.66

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

55%

Strike defense

51%

1.88

TDs / 15 min

2.82

67%

Takedown defense

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66Δ 2.05 — meaningful gap-1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Scott HoltzmanCody Pfister

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Scott Holtzman(10 fights)Cody Pfister(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +85.8|Blue -85.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -23.0|Blue +23.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott HoltzmanTargetCody Pfister

By target zone

44% acc · 64%

Head

27% acc · 86%

87% acc · 25%

Body

80% acc · 14%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

42% acc · 55%

Distance

23% acc · 61%

86% acc · 23%

Clinch

58% acc · 25%

75% acc · 23%

Ground

67% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Scott Holtzman rounds

even

Cody Pfister rounds

Round 1Scott Holtzman edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:48

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 2Scott Holtzman edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:40

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:48Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Scott Holtzman edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:52

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 99

Sig Strikes

28 / 93

55.7%

Sig Str %

31.7%

120 / 177

Total Strikes

55 / 124

3 / 3

TDs

1 / 9

100%

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

6:20

Ctrl Time

3:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cody Pfister	14 / 53	16 / 55	0 / 4	0
1	Scott Holtzman	27 / 55	35 / 64	1 / 1	0
2	Cody Pfister	6 / 18	22 / 36	0 / 2	0
2	Scott Holtzman	12 / 20	39 / 48	1 / 1	0
3	Cody Pfister	8 / 22	17 / 33	1 / 3	0
3	Scott Holtzman	14 / 24	46 / 65	1 / 1	1

Scott Holtzman

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Cody Pfister

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4