← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Krzysztof Jotko won · S-DEC R3

Elo1360

Elo1496

Scott AskhamvsKrzysztof JotkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · Saturday, October 24, 2015Dublin, Leinster, Ireland

Official fight result

Krzysztof Jotko won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupScott Askham: Well-roundedvsKrzysztof Jotko: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Krzysztof Jotko wins(59.7%)

Actual result: Krzysztof Jotko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Krzysztof Jotko at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Krzysztof Jotko has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Scott Askham

Red Corner

Krzysztof Jotko

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1360

Elo

1496

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott AskhamL2 streak

oldest →

vs Magnus Cedenblad · Oct 14

KOvs Antonio Dos Santos · Jun 15

KOvs Chris Dempsey · Feb 16

vs Jack Hermansson · Sep 16

DECvs Bradley Scott · Mar 17

latest

Krzysztof Jotko

oldest →

vs Eryk Anders · May 20

vs Sean Strickland · May 21

vs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 21

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 22

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott AskhamMetricKrzysztof Jotko

3.03

Strikes / min

2.98

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

52%

Strike defense

57%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

1.33

65%

Takedown defense

82%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Scott AskhamKrzysztof Jotko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Scott Askham(6 fights)Krzysztof Jotko(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.4|Blue +136.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -259.0|Blue +259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott AskhamTargetKrzysztof Jotko

By target zone

14% acc · 32%

Head

29% acc · 63%

50% acc · 14%

Body

75% acc · 24%

100% acc · 55%

Leg

83% acc · 13%

By position

26% acc · 68%

Distance

22% acc · 42%

57% acc · 18%

Clinch

86% acc · 16%

100% acc · 14%

Ground

73% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Scott Askham rounds

even

Krzysztof Jotko rounds

Round 1Krzysztof Jotko edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:32Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:52

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:30

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 67

Sig Strikes

38 / 101

37.3%

Sig Str %

38%

38 / 83

Total Strikes

107 / 176

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:22

Ctrl Time

4:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Krzysztof Jotko	19 / 32	55 / 70	2 / 2	0
1	Scott Askham	7 / 12	12 / 17	0 / 0	1
2	Krzysztof Jotko	9 / 31	18 / 40	0 / 0	0
2	Scott Askham	6 / 23	11 / 28	0 / 0	0
3	Krzysztof Jotko	10 / 38	34 / 66	0 / 1	0
3	Scott Askham	9 / 32	15 / 38	0 / 1	0

Scott Askham

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Krzysztof Jotko

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16