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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jack Hermansson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1360

Elo1480

Scott AskhamvsJack HermanssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · Saturday, September 3, 2016Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Official fight result

Jack Hermansson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupScott Askham: Well-roundedvsJack Hermansson: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Scott Askham wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Jack Hermansson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Scott Askham at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Scott Askham is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Jack Hermansson has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Jack Hermansson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Scott Askham (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Scott Askham

Red Corner

Jack Hermansson

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1360

Elo

1480

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott Askham

oldest →

vs Magnus Cedenblad · Oct 14

KOvs Antonio Dos Santos · Jun 15

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Oct 15

KOvs Chris Dempsey · Feb 16

DECvs Bradley Scott · Mar 17

latest

Jack HermanssonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22

vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25

KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott AskhamMetricJack Hermansson

3.03

Strikes / min

5.15

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

3.72

52%

Strike defense

56%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

1.48

65%

Takedown defense

80%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 1.92 — meaningful gap+1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Scott AskhamJack Hermansson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Scott Askham(6 fights)Jack Hermansson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -120.8|Blue +120.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott AskhamTargetJack Hermansson

By target zone

13% acc · 22%

Head

40% acc · 44%

64% acc · 57%

Body

95% acc · 24%

73% acc · 22%

Leg

78% acc · 32%

By position

28% acc · 62%

Distance

50% acc · 65%

59% acc · 35%

Clinch

75% acc · 34%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Scott Askham rounds

even

Jack Hermansson rounds

Round 1Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:32

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 2Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:11

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 3Jack Hermansson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:02

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 106

Sig Strikes

88 / 156

35.3%

Sig Str %

56%

49 / 120

Total Strikes

121 / 190

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 6

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

1:45

Ctrl Time

3:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jack Hermansson	16 / 43	20 / 47	0 / 1	0
1	Scott Askham	11 / 42	13 / 44	0 / 1	0
2	Jack Hermansson	40 / 70	45 / 75	0 / 2	0
2	Scott Askham	17 / 41	18 / 42	0 / 2	1
3	Jack Hermansson	32 / 43	56 / 68	1 / 3	0
3	Scott Askham	9 / 23	18 / 34	0 / 0	1

Scott Askham

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19