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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Vanessa Melo won · U-DEC

Elo1394

Elo1493

Sarah MorasvsVanessa MeloUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · Saturday, January 16, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Vanessa Melo won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Sarah Moras wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Vanessa Melo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sarah Moras at -230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vanessa Melo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Vanessa Melo has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sarah Moras

Red Corner

Vanessa Melo

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1394

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sarah Moras

oldest →

vs Lucie Pudilova · Feb 18

vs Talita Bernardo · Oct 18

KOvs Macy Chiasson · May 19

KOvs Liana Jojua · Sep 19

vs Sijara Eubanks · May 20

latest

Vanessa MeloL3 streak

oldest →

vs Irene Aldana · Sep 19

vs Tracy Cortez · Nov 19

vs Karol Rosa · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sarah MorasMetricVanessa Melo

2.28

Strikes / min

3.48

3.58

Strikes absorbed / min

6.13

50%

Strike defense

59%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

0.00

33%

Takedown defense

71%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.30Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-2.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sarah MorasVanessa Melo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sarah Moras(9 fights)Vanessa Melo(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -98.5|Blue +98.5

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +59.0|Blue -59.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sarah MorasTargetVanessa Melo

By target zone

7% acc · 27%

Head

28% acc · 77%

64% acc · 16%

Body

64% acc · 16%

93% acc · 57%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

22% acc · 100%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sarah Moras rounds

even

Vanessa Melo rounds

Round 1Vanessa Melo edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Vanessa Melo edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 200

Sig Strikes

56 / 169

21.7%

Sig Str %

32.7%

44 / 200

Total Strikes

56 / 169

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vanessa Melo	23 / 62	23 / 62	0 / 0
1	Sarah Moras	17 / 70	17 / 70	0 / 0
2	Vanessa Melo	17 / 58	17 / 58	0 / 0
2	Sarah Moras	12 / 59	12 / 59	0 / 1
3	Vanessa Melo	16 / 49	16 / 49	0 / 0
3	Sarah Moras	15 / 71	15 / 71	0 / 0

Sarah Moras

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9

Vanessa Melo

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights4