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Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Sarah Moras won · SUB R1
Elo1394
Sarah Moras
Elo1468

Sarah MorasvsAshlee Evans-SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · Saturday, September 9, 2017Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Sarah Moras won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:51

Model Prediction: Ashlee Evans-Smith wins(51.1%)

Actual result: Sarah Moras wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ashlee Evans-Smith at -320 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ashlee Evans-Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Ashlee Evans-Smith has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sarah Moras
Red Corner
VS
Ashlee Evans-Smith
Blue Corner
+260
(28%)
Vegas Odds
-320
(76%)
1394
Elo
1468
38
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sarah MorasL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Talita Bernardo · Oct 18
L
KOvs Macy Chiasson · May 19
W
KOvs Liana Jojua · Sep 19
L
vs Sijara Eubanks · May 20
L
vs Vanessa Melo · Jan 21
latest
Ashlee Evans-SmithL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Ketlen Vieira · Apr 17
W
vs Bec Rawlings · Apr 18
L
vs Andrea Lee · Feb 19
L
vs Norma Dumont · Nov 20
L
vs Ailin Perez · Jul 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sarah MorasMetricAshlee Evans-Smith
2.28
Strikes / min
4.03
3.58
Strikes absorbed / min
4.59
50%
Strike defense
53%
0.67
TDs / 15 min
0.95
33%
Takedown defense
50%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.30evenly matched on net striking-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1501Strikes16.5 vs 51.8Takedowns0.5 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form-0.5 vs -0.1
Sarah MorasAshlee Evans-Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Sarah Moras(9 fights)Ashlee Evans-Smith(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -73.8|Blue +73.8
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +640.0|Blue -640.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sarah MorasTargetAshlee Evans-Smith

By target zone

2
40% acc · 67%
Head
1
20% acc · 33%
0
Body
2
50% acc · 67%
1
100% acc · 33%
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
0
0% acc
0
0% acc
Clinch
2
50% acc · 67%
3
75% acc · 100%
Ground
1
100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Sarah Moras rounds
0
even
1
Ashlee Evans-Smith rounds
Round 1Ashlee Evans-Smith edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:08
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:26Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 6
Sig Strikes
3 / 9
50%
Sig Str %
33%
5 / 9
Total Strikes
5 / 11
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:08
Ctrl Time
2:26

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ashlee Evans-Smith3 / 95 / 110 / 00
1Sarah Moras3 / 65 / 90 / 11

Sarah Moras

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights9

Ashlee Evans-Smith

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights9