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Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Sarah Moras won · U-DEC R3
Elo1394
Sarah Moras
Elo1354

Sarah MorasvsAlexis DufresneUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · Sunday, July 6, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sarah Moras won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alexis Dufresne wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Sarah Moras wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexis Dufresne at -230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alexis Dufresne has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Alexis Dufresne has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sarah Moras
Red Corner
VS
Alexis Dufresne
Blue Corner
+210
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
1394
Elo
1354
38
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'9"
170.18 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sarah MorasL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Talita Bernardo · Oct 18
L
KOvs Macy Chiasson · May 19
W
KOvs Liana Jojua · Sep 19
L
vs Sijara Eubanks · May 20
L
vs Vanessa Melo · Jan 21
latest
Alexis Dufresne
oldest →
L
vs Marion Reneau · Jan 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sarah MorasMetricAlexis Dufresne
2.28
Strikes / min
1.33
3.58
Strikes absorbed / min
3.33
50%
Strike defense
60%
0.67
TDs / 15 min
1.50
33%
Takedown defense
50%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.30evenly matched on net striking-2.00
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Sarah Moras(9 fights)Alexis Dufresne(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +40.3|Blue -40.3
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sarah MorasTargetAlexis Dufresne

By target zone

12
41% acc · 80%
Head
5
24% acc · 42%
1
33% acc · 7%
Body
5
100% acc · 42%
2
100% acc · 13%
Leg
2
100% acc · 17%

By position

8
38% acc · 53%
Distance
5
45% acc · 42%
4
50% acc · 27%
Clinch
0
3
60% acc · 20%
Ground
7
41% acc · 58%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Sarah Moras rounds
0
even
2
Alexis Dufresne rounds
Round 1Alexis Dufresne edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:40Control
Round 2Sarah Moras edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control2:36
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:36Control
Round 3Alexis Dufresne edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:39Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
15 / 34
Sig Strikes
12 / 28
57.7%
Sig Str %
44%
123 / 149
Total Strikes
65 / 86
1 / 2
TDs
3 / 3
50%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
1
2:36
Ctrl Time
10:55

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alexis Dufresne5 / 1317 / 281 / 10
1Sarah Moras5 / 1546 / 580 / 00
2Alexis Dufresne4 / 925 / 301 / 10
2Sarah Moras6 / 1537 / 481 / 20
3Alexis Dufresne3 / 623 / 281 / 10
3Sarah Moras4 / 440 / 430 / 00

Sarah Moras

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights9

Alexis Dufresne

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach—
Fights2