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Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Sarah Kaufman won · U-DEC R3
Elo1356
Sarah Kaufman
Elo1491
Leslie Smith

Sarah KaufmanvsLeslie SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · Wednesday, April 16, 2014Quebec City, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Sarah Kaufman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSarah Kaufman: Pressure fightervsLeslie Smith: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sarah Kaufman wins(66.9%)

Actual result: Sarah Kaufman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sarah Kaufman at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sarah Kaufman has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Sarah Kaufman has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sarah Kaufman
Red Corner
VS
Leslie Smith
Blue Corner
-265
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
1356
Elo
1491
40
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'9"
167.64 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sarah KaufmanL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Alexis Davis · Apr 15
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Dec 15
latest
Leslie SmithW2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Jessica Eye · Nov 14
W
vs Rin Nakai · Mar 16
L
KOvs Cris Cyborg · May 16
W
vs Irene Aldana · Dec 16
W
KOvs Amanda Lemos · Jul 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sarah KaufmanMetricLeslie Smith
6.65
Strikes / min
7.56
4.00
Strikes absorbed / min
8.41
62%
Strike defense
51%
0.38
TDs / 15 min
0.00
81%
Takedown defense
62%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.65Δ 3.50 — meaningful gap-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes87.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.0 vs 0.0
Sarah KaufmanLeslie Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Sarah Kaufman(3 fights)Leslie Smith(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -134.9|Blue +134.9
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sarah KaufmanTargetLeslie Smith

By target zone

106
41% acc · 52%
Head
50
24% acc · 63%
48
79% acc · 24%
Body
9
53% acc · 11%
48
96% acc · 24%
Leg
20
100% acc · 25%

By position

112
43% acc · 55%
Distance
53
26% acc · 67%
84
80% acc · 42%
Clinch
26
63% acc · 33%
6
100% acc · 3%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Sarah Kaufman rounds
0
even
0
Leslie Smith rounds
Round 1Sarah Kaufman edged it
Sig. strikes71
Takedowns0
Control0:19
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:04Control
Round 2Sarah Kaufman edged it
Sig. strikes71
Takedowns0
Control0:28
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:46Control
Round 3Sarah Kaufman edged it
Sig. strikes60
Takedowns1
Control1:51
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
202 / 370
Sig Strikes
79 / 243
54.7%
Sig Str %
32.7%
232 / 403
Total Strikes
100 / 265
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 5
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:38
Ctrl Time
2:07

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Leslie Smith31 / 9043 / 1030 / 20
1Sarah Kaufman71 / 13681 / 1470 / 00
2Leslie Smith29 / 10032 / 1030 / 10
2Sarah Kaufman71 / 13479 / 1430 / 00
3Leslie Smith19 / 5325 / 590 / 20
3Sarah Kaufman60 / 10072 / 1131 / 10

Sarah Kaufman

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights3

Leslie Smith

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights7