Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sara McMann won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1495

Elo1352

Sara McMannvsSheila GaffUFC Prediction Result

UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · Saturday, April 27, 2013Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Sara McMann won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:06

Model Prediction: Sara McMann wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Sara McMann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sara McMann at -570 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sara McMann has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sara McMann has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Sara McMann has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sara McMann

Red Corner

Sheila Gaff

Blue Corner

-570

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+480

(17%)

1495

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sara McMann

oldest →

SUBvs Ketlen Vieira · Sep 17

SUBvs Marion Reneau · Feb 18

vs Lina Lansberg · Jan 20

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Jan 21

vs Karol Rosa · Mar 22

latest

Sheila Gaff

oldest →

KOvs Amanda Nunes · Aug 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sara McMannMetricSheila Gaff

2.26

Strikes / min

1.60

1.92

Strikes absorbed / min

2.89

47%

Strike defense

28%

4.38

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

20%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.34Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap-1.29

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sara McMann(10 fights)Sheila Gaff(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +142.8|Blue -142.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sara McMannTargetSheila Gaff

By target zone

88% acc · 88%

Head

25% acc · 14%

100% acc · 13%

Body

75% acc · 86%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 13%

Distance

25% acc · 14%

Clinch

75% acc · 86%

100% acc · 88%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sara McMann rounds

even

Sheila Gaff rounds

Round 1Sara McMann edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control3:48

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 9

Sig Strikes

7 / 12

88%

Sig Str %

58%

72 / 73

Total Strikes

15 / 20

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:48

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sheila Gaff	7 / 12	15 / 20	0 / 0	0
1	Sara McMann	8 / 9	72 / 73	2 / 2	0

Sara McMann

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights13

Sheila Gaff

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach—

Fights2