Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sara McMann won · S-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1493

Sara McMannvsLauren MurphyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 16, 2014Bangor, Maine, USA

Official fight result

Sara McMann won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSara McMann: WrestlervsLauren Murphy: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Sara McMann wins(70.2%)

Actual result: Sara McMann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sara McMann at -570 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lauren Murphy has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sara McMann

Red Corner

Lauren Murphy

Blue Corner

-570

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+480

(17%)

1495

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sara McMann

oldest →

SUBvs Ketlen Vieira · Sep 17

SUBvs Marion Reneau · Feb 18

vs Lina Lansberg · Jan 20

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Jan 21

vs Karol Rosa · Mar 22

latest

Lauren MurphyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 21

KOvs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 21

vs Miesha Tate · Jul 22

vs Jessica Andrade · Jan 23

vs Eduarda Moura · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sara McMannMetricLauren Murphy

2.26

Strikes / min

3.94

1.92

Strikes absorbed / min

5.19

47%

Strike defense

56%

4.38

TDs / 15 min

1.09

50%

Takedown defense

67%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.34Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sara McMannLauren Murphy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sara McMann(10 fights)Lauren Murphy(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sara McMannTargetLauren Murphy

By target zone

39% acc · 61%

Head

54% acc · 85%

50% acc · 16%

Body

100% acc · 2%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

37% acc · 55%

Distance

33% acc · 31%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

68% acc · 34%

Ground

88% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sara McMann rounds

even

Lauren Murphy rounds

Round 1Sara McMann edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control4:48

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sara McMann edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control3:56

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control1:54

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 80

Sig Strikes

48 / 83

50.3%

Sig Str %

61.3%

64 / 112

Total Strikes

193 / 236

5 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:38

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lauren Murphy	13 / 17	62 / 71	0 / 0
1	Sara McMann	13 / 20	26 / 38	1 / 1
2	Lauren Murphy	8 / 14	48 / 57	0 / 0
2	Sara McMann	9 / 19	22 / 33	2 / 4
3	Lauren Murphy	27 / 52	83 / 108	0 / 0
3	Sara McMann	16 / 41	16 / 41	2 / 4

Sara McMann

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights13

Lauren Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15