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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ketlen Vieira won · SUB R2

Elo1495

Elo1515

Sara McMannvsKetlen VieiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · Saturday, September 9, 2017Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Ketlen Vieira won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:16

Style matchupSara McMann: WrestlervsKetlen Vieira: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ketlen Vieira wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Ketlen Vieira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ketlen Vieira at +170 American odds

+$170 profit

$270 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ketlen Vieira has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sara McMann

Red Corner

Ketlen Vieira

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1495

Elo

1515

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sara McMann

oldest →

SUBvs Gina Mazany · Feb 17

SUBvs Marion Reneau · Feb 18

vs Lina Lansberg · Jan 20

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Jan 21

vs Karol Rosa · Mar 22

latest

Ketlen Vieira

oldest →

vs Pannie Kianzad · Jul 23

vs Kayla Harrison · Oct 24

vs Macy Chiasson · May 25

vs Norma Dumont · Nov 25

DECvs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sara McMannMetricKetlen Vieira

2.26

Strikes / min

2.76

1.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.75

47%

Strike defense

50%

4.38

TDs / 15 min

1.33

50%

Takedown defense

90%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.34Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sara McMannKetlen Vieira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sara McMann(10 fights)Ketlen Vieira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.4|Blue +19.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +55.0|Blue -55.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sara McMannTargetKetlen Vieira

By target zone

48% acc · 86%

Head

80% acc · 94%

67% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 6%

67% acc · 7%

Leg

By position

11% acc · 3%

Distance

0% acc

82% acc · 31%

Clinch

100% acc · 82%

50% acc · 66%

Ground

100% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sara McMann rounds

even

Ketlen Vieira rounds

Round 1Sara McMann edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control4:07

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ketlen Vieira edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:25

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:45Control

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 58

Sig Strikes

17 / 21

54.5%

Sig Str %

78.5%

36 / 67

Total Strikes

35 / 45

1 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

25%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

5:32

Ctrl Time

1:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ketlen Vieira	3 / 4	12 / 15	0 / 0	1
1	Sara McMann	20 / 44	26 / 51	1 / 2	0
2	Ketlen Vieira	14 / 17	23 / 30	1 / 1	1
2	Sara McMann	9 / 14	10 / 16	0 / 3	0

Sara McMann

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights13

Ketlen Vieira

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14