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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sara McMann won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1493

Sara McMannvsKarol RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Saturday, March 26, 2022Columbus, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Sara McMann won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSara McMann: WrestlervsKarol Rosa: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Karol Rosa wins(73.8%)

Actual result: Sara McMann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karol Rosa at -275 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karol Rosa has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sara McMann

Red Corner

Karol Rosa

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-275

(73%)

1495

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sara McMann

oldest →

SUBvs Gina Mazany · Feb 17

SUBvs Ketlen Vieira · Sep 17

SUBvs Marion Reneau · Feb 18

vs Lina Lansberg · Jan 20

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Jan 21

latest

Karol Rosa

oldest →

vs Irene Aldana · Dec 23

vs Pannie Kianzad · Aug 24

vs Ailin Perez · Jan 25

vs Nora Cornolle · Aug 25

DECvs Luana Santos · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sara McMannMetricKarol Rosa

2.26

Strikes / min

5.88

1.92

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

47%

Strike defense

49%

4.38

TDs / 15 min

1.17

50%

Takedown defense

70%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.34evenly matched on net striking+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sara McMannKarol Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sara McMann(10 fights)Karol Rosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +252.0|Blue -252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sara McMannTargetKarol Rosa

By target zone

54% acc · 63%

Head

56% acc · 77%

75% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 15%

60% acc · 13%

Leg

67% acc · 8%

By position

33% acc · 29%

Distance

52% acc · 50%

88% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 27%

83% acc · 42%

Ground

55% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sara McMann rounds

even

Karol Rosa rounds

Round 1Sara McMann edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control3:44

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sara McMann edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:45

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:58

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 41

Sig Strikes

26 / 43

57.7%

Sig Str %

59.3%

73 / 100

Total Strikes

92 / 120

4 / 6

TDs

1 / 2

72%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

10:27

Ctrl Time

1:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Karol Rosa	7 / 11	31 / 35	0 / 0
1	Sara McMann	10 / 15	31 / 37	1 / 1
2	Karol Rosa	6 / 12	9 / 18	0 / 0
2	Sara McMann	5 / 13	7 / 15	1 / 2
3	Karol Rosa	13 / 20	52 / 67	1 / 2
3	Sara McMann	9 / 13	35 / 48	2 / 3

Sara McMann

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights13

Karol Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12