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Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Sara McMann won · SUB R1
Elo1495
Elo1423
Gina Mazany

Sara McMannvsGina MazanyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · Sunday, February 19, 2017Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Official fight result

Sara McMann won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:14

Style matchupSara McMann: WrestlervsGina Mazany: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Sara McMann wins(71.5%)

Actual result: Sara McMann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sara McMann at -800 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sara McMann has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Gina Mazany (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sara McMann
Red Corner
VS
Gina Mazany
Blue Corner
-800
(89%)
Vegas Odds
+550
(15%)
1495
Elo
1423
45
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'6"
167.64 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sara McMann
oldest →
L
SUBvs Ketlen Vieira · Sep 17
L
SUBvs Marion Reneau · Feb 18
W
vs Lina Lansberg · Jan 20
L
SUBvs Julianna Pena · Jan 21
W
vs Karol Rosa · Mar 22
latest
Gina MazanyL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Macy Chiasson · Mar 19
L
KOvs Julia Avila · Jun 20
W
KOvs Rachael Ostovich · Nov 20
L
KOvs Priscila Cachoeira · May 21
L
KOvs Shanna Young · Apr 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sara McMannMetricGina Mazany
2.26
Strikes / min
3.73
1.92
Strikes absorbed / min
3.52
47%
Strike defense
50%
4.38
TDs / 15 min
4.34
50%
Takedown defense
33%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.34evenly matched on net striking+0.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1500Strikes18.7 vs —Takedowns1.7 vs —Sub Atts0.29 vs —Form0.6 vs 0.0
Sara McMannGina Mazany

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Sara McMann(10 fights)Gina Mazany(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +71.7|Blue -71.7
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red -48.9|Blue +48.9
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sara McMannTargetGina Mazany

By target zone

6
46% acc · 86%
Head
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 14%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

3
60% acc · 43%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0% acc
4
44% acc · 57%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Sara McMann rounds
0
even
0
Gina Mazany rounds
Round 1Sara McMann edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control1:02
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
7 / 14
Sig Strikes
0 / 2
50%
Sig Str %
0%
7 / 14
Total Strikes
0 / 2
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gina Mazany0 / 20 / 20 / 00
1Sara McMann7 / 147 / 142 / 21

Sara McMann

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights13

Gina Mazany

StanceSouthpaw
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights8