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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Amanda Nunes won · SUB R1

Elo1495

Elo1501

Sara McMannvsAmanda NunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 8, 2015Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Amanda Nunes won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:53

Style matchupSara McMann: WrestlervsAmanda Nunes: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Sara McMann wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Amanda Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sara McMann at -260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Amanda Nunes has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Amanda Nunes has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sara McMann

Red Corner

Amanda Nunes

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1495

Elo

1501

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sara McMann

oldest →

SUBvs Ketlen Vieira · Sep 17

SUBvs Marion Reneau · Feb 18

vs Lina Lansberg · Jan 20

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Jan 21

vs Karol Rosa · Mar 22

latest

Amanda NunesW2 streak

oldest →

vs Felicia Spencer · Jun 20

SUBvs Megan Anderson · Mar 21

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Dec 21

vs Julianna Pena · Jul 22

vs Irene Aldana · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sara McMannMetricAmanda Nunes

2.26

Strikes / min

4.55

1.92

Strikes absorbed / min

2.62

47%

Strike defense

57%

4.38

TDs / 15 min

2.73

50%

Takedown defense

82%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.34Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap+1.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sara McMannAmanda Nunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sara McMann(10 fights)Amanda Nunes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.2|Blue +6.2

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sara McMannTargetAmanda Nunes

By target zone

8% acc · 50%

Head

73% acc · 89%

0% acc

Body

40% acc · 7%

50% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

13% acc · 100%

Distance

61% acc · 41%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

Ground

79% acc · 56%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sara McMann rounds

even

Amanda Nunes rounds

Round 1Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 16

Sig Strikes

27 / 39

12%

Sig Str %

69%

4 / 18

Total Strikes

36 / 53

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Amanda Nunes	27 / 39	36 / 53	0 / 0	1
1	Sara McMann	2 / 16	4 / 18	0 / 2	0

Sara McMann

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights13

Amanda Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights18