Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sara McMann won · SUB R2

Elo1495

Sara McMannvsAlexis DavisUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · Saturday, December 3, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sara McMann won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:52

Style matchupSara McMann: WrestlervsAlexis Davis: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alexis Davis wins(68.4%)

Actual result: Sara McMann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexis Davis at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sara McMann has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sara McMann

Red Corner

Alexis Davis

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1495

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sara McMann

oldest →

SUBvs Ketlen Vieira · Sep 17

SUBvs Marion Reneau · Feb 18

vs Lina Lansberg · Jan 20

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Jan 21

vs Karol Rosa · Mar 22

latest

Alexis Davis

oldest →

vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 19

vs Viviane Araujo · Jul 19

vs Sabina Mazo · Feb 21

vs Pannie Kianzad · Jun 21

vs Julija Stoliarenko · Feb 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sara McMannMetricAlexis Davis

2.26

Strikes / min

4.63

1.92

Strikes absorbed / min

4.45

47%

Strike defense

54%

4.38

TDs / 15 min

0.95

50%

Takedown defense

34%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.34evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sara McMannAlexis Davis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sara McMann(10 fights)Alexis Davis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -400.0|Blue +400.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sara McMannTargetAlexis Davis

By target zone

34% acc · 79%

Head

68% acc · 81%

67% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 5%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

28% acc · 57%

Distance

58% acc · 52%

Clinch

86% acc · 43%

Ground

100% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sara McMann rounds

even

Alexis Davis rounds

Round 1Alexis Davis edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:50Control

Round 2Alexis Davis edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:21Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 36

Sig Strikes

21 / 29

36.5%

Sig Str %

65%

25 / 47

Total Strikes

55 / 66

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

6:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexis Davis	17 / 21	51 / 58	0 / 0	1
1	Sara McMann	12 / 30	21 / 39	1 / 1	0
2	Alexis Davis	4 / 8	4 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Sara McMann	2 / 6	4 / 8	1 / 1	1

Sara McMann

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights13

Alexis Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14