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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Santiago Ponzinibbio won · U-DEC R3

Elo1477

Elo1499

Santiago PonzinibbiovsZak CummingsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · Saturday, August 6, 2016Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Santiago Ponzinibbio won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fightervsZak Cummings: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Santiago Ponzinibbio at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Zak Cummings (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Red Corner

Zak Cummings

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1477

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Zak CummingsW2 streak

oldest →

vs Trevor Smith · Dec 18

SUBvs Trevin Giles · May 19

vs Omari Akhmedov · Sep 19

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 20

KOvs Ed Herman · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Santiago PonzinibbioMetricZak Cummings

4.78

Strikes / min

2.96

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

61%

Strike defense

55%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.62

71%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Santiago PonzinibbioZak Cummings

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)Zak Cummings(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.3|Blue +22.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -6.0|Blue +6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Santiago PonzinibbioTargetZak Cummings

By target zone

43% acc · 86%

Head

17% acc · 66%

100% acc · 3%

Body

67% acc · 23%

86% acc · 10%

Leg

80% acc · 11%

By position

45% acc · 95%

Distance

23% acc · 100%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

even

Zak Cummings rounds

Round 1Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 126

Sig Strikes

35 / 152

48.7%

Sig Str %

22%

60 / 128

Total Strikes

35 / 152

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 5

—

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zak Cummings	7 / 39	7 / 39	1 / 2
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	14 / 23	15 / 24	0 / 0
2	Zak Cummings	13 / 53	13 / 53	0 / 2
2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	21 / 43	22 / 44	0 / 0
3	Zak Cummings	15 / 60	15 / 60	0 / 1
3	Santiago Ponzinibbio	23 / 60	23 / 60	0 / 0

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21

Zak Cummings

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14