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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Santiago Ponzinibbio won · U-DEC R3

Elo1477

Elo1530

Santiago PonzinibbiovsSean StricklandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · Sunday, February 22, 2015Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Official fight result

Santiago Ponzinibbio won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fightervsSean Strickland: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sean Strickland wins(71.7%)

Actual result: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Strickland at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Red Corner

Sean Strickland

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1477

Elo

1530

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Sean StricklandW2 streak

oldest →

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Jan 24

vs Paulo Costa · Jun 24

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Feb 25

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 26

DECvs Khamzat Chimaev · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Santiago PonzinibbioMetricSean Strickland

4.78

Strikes / min

5.98

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

61%

Strike defense

60%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.66

71%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap+1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Santiago PonzinibbioSean Strickland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)Sean Strickland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -53.3|Blue +53.3

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Santiago PonzinibbioTargetSean Strickland

By target zone

30% acc · 78%

Head

25% acc · 89%

29% acc · 12%

Body

29% acc · 5%

50% acc · 10%

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

30% acc · 92%

Distance

26% acc · 95%

43% acc · 6%

Clinch

20% acc · 2%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

even

Sean Strickland rounds

Round 1Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:24

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:04

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 162

Sig Strikes

44 / 167

30.3%

Sig Str %

26%

54 / 166

Total Strikes

46 / 169

1 / 3

TDs

2 / 4

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

1:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean Strickland	14 / 56	15 / 57	1 / 2
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	20 / 58	21 / 59	1 / 1
2	Sean Strickland	17 / 59	17 / 59	0 / 1
2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	15 / 47	15 / 47	0 / 0
3	Sean Strickland	13 / 52	14 / 53	1 / 1
3	Santiago Ponzinibbio	15 / 57	18 / 60	0 / 2

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21

Sean Strickland

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25