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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sam Patterson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1477

Elo1552

Santiago PonzinibbiovsSam PattersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Saturday, July 25, 2026Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Sam Patterson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:06

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Sam Patterson

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Sam Patterson at -432 American odds · hypothetical only

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Style matchupSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fightervsSam Patterson: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Santiago Ponzinibbio is a KO finisher (58% of wins). Sam Patterson has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Sam Patterson is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Santiago Ponzinibbio has lost 56% of fights by KO.
Santiago Ponzinibbio has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Santiago Ponzinibbio has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Sam Patterson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Red Corner

Sam Patterson

Blue Corner

+396

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-544

(84%)

1477

Elo

1552

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Santiago Ponzinibbio

oldest →

KOvs Alex Morono · Dec 22

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

latest

Sam Patterson

oldest →

SUBvs Yohan Lainesse · Jan 24

SUBvs Kiefer Crosbie · Jul 24

KOvs Danny Barlow · Mar 25

KOvs Trey Waters · Sep 25

vs Michael Page · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Santiago PonzinibbioMetricSam Patterson

4.78

Strikes / min

2.62

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

61%

Strike defense

50%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.82

71%

Takedown defense

33%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.44

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)Sam Patterson(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -74.6|Blue +74.6

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red +322.0|Blue -322.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Santiago PonzinibbioTargetSam Patterson

By target zone

13% acc · 71%

Head

49% acc · 91%

33% acc · 7%

Body

43% acc · 9%

75% acc · 21%

Leg

By position

16% acc · 100%

Distance

47% acc · 92%

Clinch

Ground

71% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

even

Sam Patterson rounds

Round 1Sam Patterson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sam Patterson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 86

Sig Strikes

64 / 132

15%

Sig Str %

49.5%

14 / 86

Total Strikes

65 / 133

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sam Patterson	29 / 75	29 / 75	0 / 0
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	10 / 52	10 / 52	0 / 1
2	Sam Patterson	35 / 57	36 / 58	0 / 0
2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	4 / 34	4 / 34	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Sam Patterson

Odds

-432

Market-implied probability

Sam Patterson 77%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Santiago Ponzinibbio$422

Sam Patterson (model pick · research)$123

77% market-implied · model 52% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC at -432 · never rewritten

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21

Sam Patterson

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7