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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ryan LaFlare won · U-DEC R3

Elo1477

Elo1491

Santiago PonzinibbiovsRyan LaFlareUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · Saturday, November 9, 2013Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Ryan LaFlare won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fightervsRyan LaFlare: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ryan LaFlare wins(88.3%)

Actual result: Ryan LaFlare wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan LaFlare at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Santiago Ponzinibbio is a KO finisher (58% of wins). Ryan LaFlare has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Ryan LaFlare (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Red Corner

Ryan LaFlare

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1477

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Ryan LaFlare

oldest →

vs Mike Pierce · Dec 15

vs Roan Carneiro · Feb 17

KOvs Alex Oliveira · Jul 17

vs Alex Garcia · Apr 18

KOvs Anthony Rocco Martin · Oct 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Santiago PonzinibbioMetricRyan LaFlare

4.78

Strikes / min

2.89

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

1.86

61%

Strike defense

63%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

2.13

71%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Santiago PonzinibbioRyan LaFlare

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)Ryan LaFlare(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.3|Blue +14.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Santiago PonzinibbioTargetRyan LaFlare

By target zone

25% acc · 60%

Head

36% acc · 60%

38% acc · 20%

Body

67% acc · 27%

71% acc · 20%

Leg

71% acc · 13%

By position

31% acc · 96%

Distance

31% acc · 45%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

75% acc · 12%

0% acc

Ground

65% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

even

Ryan LaFlare rounds

Round 1Ryan LaFlare edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:17

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:02Control

Round 2Ryan LaFlare edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 3Ryan LaFlare edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns1

42Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:45Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 81

Sig Strikes

75 / 170

28.7%

Sig Str %

42.3%

32 / 92

Total Strikes

109 / 211

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 10

—

TD %

66.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

7:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ryan LaFlare	12 / 30	15 / 34	2 / 3
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	3 / 12	6 / 16	0 / 0
2	Ryan LaFlare	21 / 66	39 / 87	2 / 6
2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	16 / 48	19 / 52	0 / 0
3	Ryan LaFlare	42 / 74	55 / 90	1 / 1
3	Santiago Ponzinibbio	6 / 21	7 / 24	0 / 0

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21

Ryan LaFlare

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10