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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Muslim Salikhov won · S-DEC R3

Elo1477

Elo1507

Santiago PonzinibbiovsMuslim SalikhovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Saturday, July 13, 2024Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Muslim Salikhov won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fightervsMuslim Salikhov: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Muslim Salikhov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Santiago Ponzinibbio at -188 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Santiago Ponzinibbio is a KO finisher (58% of wins). Muslim Salikhov has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Muslim Salikhov is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Santiago Ponzinibbio has lost 56% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Red Corner

Muslim Salikhov

Blue Corner

-188

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1477

Elo

1507

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Morono · Dec 22

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Muslim Salikhov

oldest →

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jun 23

KOvs Randy Brown · Feb 24

KOvs Song Kenan · Nov 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Jul 25

KOvs Uros Medic · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Santiago PonzinibbioMetricMuslim Salikhov

4.78

Strikes / min

3.37

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

61%

Strike defense

62%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

1.07

71%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Santiago PonzinibbioMuslim Salikhov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)Muslim Salikhov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -30.5|Blue +30.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +301.0|Blue -301.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Santiago PonzinibbioTargetMuslim Salikhov

By target zone

30% acc · 76%

Head

23% acc · 43%

71% acc · 12%

Body

74% acc · 43%

63% acc · 12%

Leg

86% acc · 13%

By position

34% acc · 98%

Distance

38% acc · 98%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

even

Muslim Salikhov rounds

Round 1Muslim Salikhov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:06

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:22

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:01

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 117

Sig Strikes

46 / 121

34.7%

Sig Str %

38.3%

42 / 118

Total Strikes

69 / 146

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 5

62.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:29

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Muslim Salikhov	17 / 37	17 / 37	0 / 4
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	14 / 43	14 / 43	0 / 0
2	Muslim Salikhov	14 / 48	16 / 50	0 / 1
2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	16 / 45	16 / 45	1 / 1
3	Muslim Salikhov	15 / 36	36 / 59	0 / 0
3	Santiago Ponzinibbio	11 / 29	12 / 30	1 / 4

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21

Muslim Salikhov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14