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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Santiago Ponzinibbio won · U-DEC R3

Elo1477

Elo1399

Santiago PonzinibbiovsMike PerryUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, December 16, 2017Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Official fight result

Santiago Ponzinibbio won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fightervsMike Perry: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Mike Perry wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Perry at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Perry is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Santiago Ponzinibbio has lost 56% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Red Corner

Mike Perry

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1477

Elo

1399

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Mike PerryL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Vincente Luque · Aug 19

KOvs Geoff Neal · Dec 19

vs Mickey Gall · Jun 20

vs Tim Means · Nov 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Santiago PonzinibbioMetricMike Perry

4.78

Strikes / min

4.32

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

5.16

61%

Strike defense

52%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.81

71%

Takedown defense

78%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Santiago PonzinibbioMike Perry

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)Mike Perry(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +78.2|Blue -78.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +62.0|Blue -62.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Santiago PonzinibbioTargetMike Perry

By target zone

32% acc · 72%

Head

30% acc · 67%

100% acc · 10%

Body

67% acc · 24%

93% acc · 18%

Leg

83% acc · 10%

By position

36% acc · 86%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

0% acc

91% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

even

Mike Perry rounds

Round 1Mike Perry edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:01

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 3Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns3

Control1:57

Knockdowns1

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 200

Sig Strikes

51 / 136

36.3%

Sig Str %

37.3%

81 / 203

Total Strikes

51 / 136

3 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:58

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mike Perry	13 / 45	13 / 45	0 / 0
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	10 / 36	10 / 36	0 / 0
2	Mike Perry	20 / 53	20 / 53	1 / 1
2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	40 / 95	40 / 95	0 / 0
3	Mike Perry	18 / 38	18 / 38	0 / 0
3	Santiago Ponzinibbio	28 / 69	31 / 72	3 / 3

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21

Mike Perry

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15