← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Santiago Ponzinibbio won · U-DEC R3

Elo1477

Elo1493

Santiago PonzinibbiovsMiguel BaezaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Saturday, June 5, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Santiago Ponzinibbio won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fightervsMiguel Baeza: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Miguel Baeza wins(70.5%)

Actual result: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Miguel Baeza at -134 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Miguel Baeza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Santiago Ponzinibbio is a KO finisher (58% of wins). Miguel Baeza has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Miguel Baeza is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Santiago Ponzinibbio has lost 56% of fights by KO.
Santiago Ponzinibbio has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Santiago Ponzinibbio has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Red Corner

Miguel Baeza

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-134

(57%)

1477

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Miguel BaezaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · May 20

SUBvs Takashi Sato · Nov 20

KOvs Khaos Williams · Nov 21

KOvs Andre Fialho · Apr 22

vs Punahele Soriano · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Santiago PonzinibbioMetricMiguel Baeza

4.78

Strikes / min

4.09

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

5.92

61%

Strike defense

46%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.36

71%

Takedown defense

54%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap-1.83

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Santiago PonzinibbioMiguel Baeza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)Miguel Baeza(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.9|Blue +15.9

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Santiago PonzinibbioTargetMiguel Baeza

By target zone

40% acc · 81%

Head

22% acc · 35%

92% acc · 10%

Body

71% acc · 23%

92% acc · 9%

Leg

90% acc · 42%

By position

121

45% acc · 100%

Distance

104

42% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

even

Miguel Baeza rounds

Round 1Miguel Baeza edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes59

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

121 / 270

Sig Strikes

104 / 249

41.3%

Sig Str %

42.3%

122 / 271

Total Strikes

104 / 249

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Miguel Baeza	39 / 73	39 / 73	0 / 0
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	15 / 52	15 / 52	0 / 0
2	Miguel Baeza	27 / 66	27 / 66	0 / 0
2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	47 / 107	47 / 107	0 / 2
3	Miguel Baeza	38 / 110	38 / 110	0 / 0
3	Santiago Ponzinibbio	59 / 111	60 / 112	0 / 0

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21

Miguel Baeza

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7