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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michel Pereira won · S-DEC R3

Elo1477

Elo1492

Santiago PonzinibbiovsMichel PereiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · Saturday, May 21, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michel Pereira won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fightervsMichel Pereira: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Michel Pereira wins(70.5%)

Actual result: Michel Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Pereira at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Santiago Ponzinibbio has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Red Corner

Michel Pereira

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1477

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Michel Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Oct 24

vs Abus Magomedov · Apr 25

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Aug 25

vs Zach Reese · Feb 26

DECvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Santiago PonzinibbioMetricMichel Pereira

4.78

Strikes / min

4.46

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

61%

Strike defense

51%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

1.21

71%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Santiago PonzinibbioMichel Pereira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)Michel Pereira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.1|Blue +15.1

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Santiago PonzinibbioTargetMichel Pereira

By target zone

42% acc · 74%

Head

36% acc · 47%

72% acc · 12%

Body

75% acc · 38%

82% acc · 13%

Leg

94% acc · 15%

By position

103

47% acc · 98%

Distance

108

50% acc · 98%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

even

Michel Pereira rounds

Round 1Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns1

Control0:18

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes55

Takedowns0

Control0:00

51Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

105 / 220

Sig Strikes

110 / 216

46.3%

Sig Str %

51%

106 / 221

Total Strikes

110 / 216

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michel Pereira	24 / 45	24 / 45	0 / 0
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	16 / 39	16 / 39	0 / 0
2	Michel Pereira	35 / 70	35 / 70	0 / 0
2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	34 / 66	35 / 67	1 / 2
3	Michel Pereira	51 / 101	51 / 101	0 / 0
3	Santiago Ponzinibbio	55 / 115	55 / 115	0 / 2

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21

Michel Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16