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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Lorenz Larkin won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1477

Elo1491

Santiago PonzinibbiovsLorenz LarkinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · Saturday, June 27, 2015Hollywood, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Lorenz Larkin won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:07

Style matchupSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fightervsLorenz Larkin: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Lorenz Larkin wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Lorenz Larkin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lorenz Larkin at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lorenz Larkin is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Santiago Ponzinibbio has lost 56% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Red Corner

Lorenz Larkin

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1477

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Lorenz LarkinW2 streak

oldest →

vs Derek Brunson · Aug 14

KOvs John Howard · Jan 15

vs Albert Tumenov · Jan 16

vs Jorge Masvidal · May 16

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Santiago PonzinibbioMetricLorenz Larkin

4.78

Strikes / min

3.53

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.74

61%

Strike defense

63%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.27

71%

Takedown defense

79%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Santiago PonzinibbioLorenz Larkin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.6|Blue +13.6

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Santiago PonzinibbioTargetLorenz Larkin

By target zone

23% acc · 58%

Head

47% acc · 64%

62% acc · 24%

Body

73% acc · 17%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

32% acc · 94%

Distance

51% acc · 75%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

83% acc · 8%

Ground

79% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

even

Lorenz Larkin rounds

Round 1Lorenz Larkin edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:56

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Lorenz Larkin edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 101

Sig Strikes

64 / 115

32%

Sig Str %

54.5%

36 / 104

Total Strikes

71 / 122

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lorenz Larkin	27 / 53	29 / 55	0 / 0
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	14 / 45	17 / 48	0 / 3
2	Lorenz Larkin	37 / 62	42 / 67	0 / 0
2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	19 / 56	19 / 56	0 / 0

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21

Lorenz Larkin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10