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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Rodriguez won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1477

Elo1520

Santiago PonzinibbiovsDaniel RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 3, 2025Des Moines, Iowa, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Rodriguez won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:12

Style matchupSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fightervsDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Daniel Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Rodriguez at +118 American odds

+$118 profit

$218 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Rodriguez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Red Corner

Daniel Rodriguez

Blue Corner

-138

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+118

(46%)

1477

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Santiago Ponzinibbio

oldest →

KOvs Alex Morono · Dec 22

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Daniel RodriguezW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Neil Magny · Nov 22

KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24

vs Alex Morono · Oct 24

vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Santiago PonzinibbioMetricDaniel Rodriguez

4.78

Strikes / min

7.20

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

5.40

61%

Strike defense

57%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.51

71%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap+1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Santiago PonzinibbioDaniel Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -43.4|Blue +43.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Santiago PonzinibbioTargetDaniel Rodriguez

By target zone

37% acc · 63%

Head

30% acc · 59%

38% acc · 12%

Body

80% acc · 30%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

70% acc · 11%

By position

44% acc · 100%

Distance

39% acc · 97%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

even

Daniel Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:02

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:42

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 111

Sig Strikes

66 / 166

43.3%

Sig Str %

39%

50 / 115

Total Strikes

70 / 170

1 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:44

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Rodriguez	35 / 81	35 / 81	0 / 0
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	15 / 35	15 / 35	0 / 2
2	Daniel Rodriguez	22 / 63	26 / 67	0 / 0
2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	27 / 60	28 / 64	1 / 6
3	Daniel Rodriguez	9 / 22	9 / 22	0 / 0
3	Santiago Ponzinibbio	7 / 16	7 / 16	0 / 0

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21

Daniel Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14