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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Santiago Ponzinibbio won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1477

Elo1476

Santiago PonzinibbiovsCarlston HarrisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Saturday, January 11, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Santiago Ponzinibbio won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:13

Style matchupSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fightervsCarlston Harris: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins(52.9%)

Actual result: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Santiago Ponzinibbio at -154 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Santiago Ponzinibbio enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Santiago Ponzinibbio is a KO finisher (58% of wins). Carlston Harris has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Santiago Ponzinibbio has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Red Corner

Carlston Harris

Blue Corner

-154

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1477

Elo

1476

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Santiago PonzinibbioL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Morono · Dec 22

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Carlston HarrisL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Feb 22

vs Jared Gooden · Mar 23

SUBvs Jeremiah Wells · Aug 23

KOvs Khaos Williams · May 24

DECvs Jake Matthews · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Santiago PonzinibbioMetricCarlston Harris

4.78

Strikes / min

3.79

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

61%

Strike defense

54%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

1.46

71%

Takedown defense

55%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Santiago PonzinibbioCarlston Harris

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)Carlston Harris(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Santiago PonzinibbioTargetCarlston Harris

By target zone

38% acc · 75%

Head

28% acc · 55%

73% acc · 11%

Body

49% acc · 26%

85% acc · 14%

Leg

93% acc · 19%

By position

44% acc · 95%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

Clinch

40% acc · 5%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

even

Carlston Harris rounds

Round 1Carlston Harris edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:38

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 175

Sig Strikes

73 / 196

43.3%

Sig Str %

34.3%

76 / 175

Total Strikes

78 / 211

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlston Harris	37 / 79	37 / 79	0 / 2
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	22 / 48	22 / 48	0 / 0
2	Carlston Harris	28 / 86	28 / 86	0 / 1
2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	27 / 70	27 / 70	0 / 0
3	Carlston Harris	8 / 31	13 / 46	0 / 2
3	Santiago Ponzinibbio	27 / 57	27 / 57	0 / 0

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21

Carlston Harris

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8