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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Santiago Ponzinibbio won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1477

Elo1356

Santiago PonzinibbiovsAndreas StahlUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · Thursday, December 10, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Santiago Ponzinibbio won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:25

Style matchupSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fightervsAndreas Stahl: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Andreas Stahl wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andreas Stahl at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Santiago Ponzinibbio is a KO finisher (58% of wins). Andreas Stahl has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Red Corner

Andreas Stahl

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1477

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Andreas Stahl

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · Jul 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Santiago PonzinibbioMetricAndreas Stahl

4.78

Strikes / min

2.83

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

4.74

61%

Strike defense

57%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

1.55

71%

Takedown defense

80%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap-1.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Santiago PonzinibbioAndreas Stahl

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)Andreas Stahl(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +121.1|Blue -121.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -336.0|Blue +336.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Santiago PonzinibbioTargetAndreas Stahl

By target zone

56% acc · 73%

Head

22% acc · 36%

86% acc · 13%

Body

80% acc · 29%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

83% acc · 36%

By position

62% acc · 94%

Distance

41% acc · 100%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

even

Andreas Stahl rounds

Round 1Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:17Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 77

Sig Strikes

14 / 34

62%

Sig Str %

41%

49 / 78

Total Strikes

14 / 35

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andreas Stahl	14 / 34	14 / 35	2 / 2	0
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	48 / 77	49 / 78	0 / 0	0

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21

Andreas Stahl

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2